Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.73%
Fair Odds 3.06
Draw
27.87%
Fair Odds 3.59
Away Win
39.4%
Fair Odds 2.54
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.53% Fair Odds 7.98

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.06 —
Draw 3.59 —
Away Win 2.54 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.53% 7.98
2 0-1 10.1% 9.9
3 1-0 9.21% 10.86
4 1-2 8.52% 11.74
5 2-1 7.77% 12.88
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 0-2 6.87% 14.56
8 2-0 5.71% 17.51
9 2-2 5.28% 18.94
10 1-3 3.86% 25.9
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
10.1%
9.9
6.87%
14.56
3.11%
32.11
1.06%
94.46
0.29%
347.22
1
9.21%
10.86
12.53%
7.98
8.52%
11.74
3.86%
25.9
1.31%
76.17
0.36%
280.03
2
5.71%
17.51
7.77%
12.88
5.28%
18.94
2.39%
41.77
0.81%
122.87
0.22%
451.67
3
2.36%
42.37
3.21%
31.15
2.18%
45.81
0.99%
101.06
0.34%
297.27
0.09%
1092.9
4
0.73%
136.67
1.0%
100.49
0.68%
147.8
0.31%
326.05
0.1%
958.77
0.03%
3521.13
5
0.18%
550.96
0.25%
405.19
0.17%
595.95
0.08%
1314.06
0.03%
3861.0
0.01%
14285.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.45% · Fair: 220.22
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.33% 25.67%
1.5 39.43% 60.57%
2.5 15.69% 84.31%
3.5 4.93% 95.07%
4.5 1.27% 98.73%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.73%
Draw 27.87%
Away Win 39.40%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.82%
No 47.18%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.85% 20.61 9.68% 10.33 85.47% 1.17
-1.5 14.53% 6.88 — 85.47% 1.17
-1.0 14.53% 6.88 19.49% 5.13 65.98% 1.52
-0.5 34.02% 2.94 — 65.98% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.02% 2.94 26.33% 3.8 39.64% 2.52
+0.5 60.36% 1.66 — 39.64% 2.52
+1.0 60.36% 1.66 21.38% 4.68 18.26% 5.48
+1.5 81.74% 1.22 — 18.26% 5.48
+2.0 81.74% 1.22 11.64% 8.59 6.62% 15.1

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.