Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.77%
Fair Odds 2.34
Draw
25.88%
Fair Odds 3.86
Away Win
31.35%
Fair Odds 3.19
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.35% Fair Odds 8.81

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.34 —
Draw 3.86 —
Away Win 3.19 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.35% 8.81
2 2-1 9.02% 11.08
3 1-0 8.41% 11.9
4 1-2 7.66% 13.06
5 0-1 7.14% 14.01
6 2-0 6.68% 14.96
7 2-2 6.09% 16.42
8 0-0 5.29% 18.92
9 0-2 4.82% 20.76
10 3-1 4.78% 20.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
7.14%
14.01
4.82%
20.76
2.17%
46.13
0.73%
136.69
0.2%
506.33
1
8.41%
11.9
11.35%
8.81
7.66%
13.06
3.45%
29.01
1.16%
85.96
0.31%
318.37
2
6.68%
14.96
9.02%
11.08
6.09%
16.42
2.74%
36.49
0.92%
108.13
0.25%
400.48
3
3.54%
28.24
4.78%
20.91
3.23%
30.98
1.45%
68.86
0.49%
204.0
0.13%
755.86
4
1.41%
71.03
1.9%
52.61
1.28%
77.95
0.58%
173.22
0.19%
513.35
0.05%
1901.14
5
0.45%
223.36
0.6%
165.45
0.41%
245.1
0.18%
544.66
0.06%
1612.9
0.02%
5988.02
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.85% · Fair: 117.18
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.61% 20.39%
1.5 47.18% 52.82%
2.5 21.41% 78.59%
3.5 7.74% 92.26%
4.5 2.31% 97.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.47% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.77%
Draw 25.88%
Away Win 31.35%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.97%
No 41.03%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.87% 11.27 12.95% 7.72 78.18% 1.28
-1.5 21.82% 4.58 — 78.18% 1.28
-1.0 21.82% 4.58 21.3% 4.7 56.88% 1.76
-0.5 43.12% 2.32 — 56.88% 1.76
0 (PK) 43.12% 2.32 24.39% 4.1 32.49% 3.08
+0.5 67.51% 1.48 — 32.49% 3.08
+1.0 67.51% 1.48 18.08% 5.53 14.41% 6.94
+1.5 85.59% 1.17 — 14.41% 6.94
+2.0 85.59% 1.17 9.33% 10.71 5.07% 19.71

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.