Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.54%
Fair Odds 2.35
Draw
25.95%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
31.52%
Fair Odds 3.17
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.39% Fair Odds 8.78

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.35 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 3.17 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.39% 8.78
2 2-1 9.0% 11.11
3 1-0 8.44% 11.85
4 1-2 7.69% 13.01
5 0-1 7.21% 13.87
6 2-0 6.67% 15.0
7 2-2 6.07% 16.46
8 0-0 5.34% 18.73
9 0-2 4.87% 20.55
10 3-1 4.74% 21.1
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.34%
18.73
7.21%
13.87
4.87%
20.55
2.19%
45.67
0.74%
135.32
0.2%
501.25
1
8.44%
11.85
11.39%
8.78
7.69%
13.01
3.46%
28.91
1.17%
85.65
0.32%
317.16
2
6.67%
15.0
9.0%
11.11
6.07%
16.46
2.73%
36.59
0.92%
108.41
0.25%
401.45
3
3.51%
28.49
4.74%
21.1
3.2%
31.26
1.44%
69.47
0.49%
205.85
0.13%
762.2
4
1.39%
72.12
1.87%
53.42
1.26%
79.15
0.57%
175.87
0.19%
521.1
0.05%
1930.5
5
0.44%
228.26
0.59%
169.06
0.4%
250.44
0.18%
556.48
0.06%
1650.17
0.02%
6097.56
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.84% · Fair: 119.57
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.34% 18.73
1 15.65% 6.39
2 22.92% 4.36
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.40% 6.10
5+ 17.31% 5.78
Over 2.5 56.09% Under 2.5 43.91%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.54%
Draw 25.95%
Away Win 31.52%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.09%
Under 2.5 43.91%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.82%
No 41.18%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.74% 11.44 12.86% 7.77 78.39% 1.28
-1.5 21.61% 4.63 — 78.39% 1.28
-1.0 21.61% 4.63 21.27% 4.7 57.12% 1.75
-0.5 42.88% 2.33 — 57.12% 1.75
0 (PK) 42.88% 2.33 24.45% 4.09 32.67% 3.06
+0.5 67.33% 1.49 — 32.67% 3.06
+1.0 67.33% 1.49 18.17% 5.5 14.5% 6.9
+1.5 85.5% 1.17 — 14.5% 6.9
+2.0 85.5% 1.17 9.39% 10.65 5.11% 19.57

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.