Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.68%
Fair Odds 2.59
Draw
26.94%
Fair Odds 3.71
Away Win
34.38%
Fair Odds 2.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.01% Fair Odds 8.32

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.59 —
Draw 3.71 —
Away Win 2.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.01% 8.32
2 1-0 8.9% 11.24
3 2-1 8.53% 11.73
4 0-1 8.46% 11.82
5 1-2 8.11% 12.33
6 2-0 6.32% 15.83
7 0-0 6.27% 15.96
8 2-2 5.76% 17.37
9 0-2 5.71% 17.51
10 3-1 4.04% 24.77
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.27%
15.96
8.46%
11.82
5.71%
17.51
2.57%
38.92
0.87%
115.31
0.23%
427.17
1
8.9%
11.24
12.01%
8.32
8.11%
12.33
3.65%
27.41
1.23%
81.21
0.33%
300.75
2
6.32%
15.83
8.53%
11.73
5.76%
17.37
2.59%
38.6
0.87%
114.38
0.24%
423.55
3
2.99%
33.44
4.04%
24.77
2.72%
36.7
1.23%
81.55
0.41%
241.66
0.11%
895.26
4
1.06%
94.2
1.43%
69.78
0.97%
103.37
0.44%
229.73
0.15%
680.74
0.04%
2518.89
5
0.3%
331.67
0.41%
245.7
0.27%
364.03
0.12%
809.06
0.04%
2398.08
0.01%
8849.56
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.61% · Fair: 163.8
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.27% 15.96
1 17.36% 5.76
2 24.04% 4.16
3 22.20% 4.51
4 15.37% 6.51
5+ 14.77% 6.77
Over 2.5 52.34% Under 2.5 47.66%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.68%
Draw 26.94%
Away Win 34.38%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.34%
Under 2.5 47.66%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.17%
No 43.83%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.8% 14.71 11.46% 8.73 81.75% 1.22
-1.5 18.25% 5.48 — 81.75% 1.22
-1.0 18.25% 5.48 20.63% 4.85 61.12% 1.64
-0.5 38.88% 2.57 — 61.12% 1.64
0 (PK) 38.88% 2.57 25.42% 3.93 35.7% 2.8
+0.5 64.3% 1.56 — 35.7% 2.8
+1.0 64.3% 1.56 19.61% 5.1 16.08% 6.22
+1.5 83.92% 1.19 — 16.08% 6.22
+2.0 83.92% 1.19 10.35% 9.66 5.73% 17.46

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.