Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.19%
Fair Odds 2.62
Draw
27.05%
Fair Odds 3.7
Away Win
34.76%
Fair Odds 2.88
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.08% Fair Odds 8.28

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.62 —
Draw 3.7 —
Away Win 2.88 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.08% 8.28
2 1-0 8.95% 11.17
3 0-1 8.63% 11.59
4 2-1 8.46% 11.82
5 1-2 8.16% 12.26
6 0-0 6.39% 15.64
7 2-0 6.26% 15.96
8 0-2 5.83% 17.17
9 2-2 5.71% 17.52
10 3-1 3.95% 25.34
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.39%
15.64
8.63%
11.59
5.83%
17.17
2.62%
38.15
0.88%
113.03
0.24%
418.59
1
8.95%
11.17
12.08%
8.28
8.16%
12.26
3.67%
27.25
1.24%
80.74
0.33%
299.04
2
6.26%
15.96
8.46%
11.82
5.71%
17.52
2.57%
38.93
0.87%
115.34
0.23%
427.17
3
2.92%
34.2
3.95%
25.34
2.66%
37.53
1.2%
83.41
0.4%
247.16
0.11%
915.75
4
1.02%
97.72
1.38%
72.39
0.93%
107.24
0.42%
238.32
0.14%
706.21
0.04%
2617.8
5
0.29%
349.04
0.39%
258.53
0.26%
383.0
0.12%
851.06
0.04%
2518.89
0.01%
9345.79
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.59% · Fair: 170.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.39% 15.64
1 17.58% 5.69
2 24.17% 4.14
3 22.16% 4.51
4 15.23% 6.56
5+ 14.46% 6.91
Over 2.5 51.85% Under 2.5 48.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.19%
Draw 27.05%
Away Win 34.76%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.85%
Under 2.5 48.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.81%
No 44.19%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.57% 15.22 11.27% 8.87 82.16% 1.22
-1.5 17.84% 5.6 — 82.16% 1.22
-1.0 17.84% 5.6 20.53% 4.87 61.63% 1.62
-0.5 38.37% 2.61 — 61.63% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.37% 2.61 25.54% 3.92 36.09% 2.77
+0.5 63.91% 1.56 — 36.09% 2.77
+1.0 63.91% 1.56 19.8% 5.05 16.29% 6.14
+1.5 83.71% 1.19 — 16.29% 6.14
+2.0 83.71% 1.19 10.48% 9.54 5.81% 17.22

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.