Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.39%
Fair Odds 2.25
Draw
25.51%
Fair Odds 3.92
Away Win
30.1%
Fair Odds 3.32
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.12% Fair Odds 8.99

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.25 —
Draw 3.92 —
Away Win 3.32 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.12% 8.99
2 2-1 9.17% 10.9
3 1-0 8.3% 12.05
4 1-2 7.45% 13.42
5 2-0 6.85% 14.61
6 0-1 6.74% 14.84
7 2-2 6.15% 16.27
8 3-1 5.05% 19.82
9 0-0 5.03% 19.89
10 0-2 4.51% 22.15
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.03%
19.89
6.74%
14.84
4.51%
22.15
2.02%
49.59
0.68%
148.02
0.18%
552.18
1
8.3%
12.05
11.12%
8.99
7.45%
13.42
3.33%
30.05
1.11%
89.71
0.3%
334.78
2
6.85%
14.61
9.17%
10.9
6.15%
16.27
2.75%
36.43
0.92%
108.74
0.25%
405.68
3
3.77%
26.56
5.05%
19.82
3.38%
29.58
1.51%
66.23
0.51%
197.71
0.14%
737.46
4
1.55%
64.39
2.08%
48.05
1.39%
71.72
0.62%
160.57
0.21%
479.39
0.06%
1788.91
5
0.51%
195.12
0.69%
145.6
0.46%
217.34
0.21%
486.62
0.07%
1451.38
0.02%
5405.41
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.95% · Fair: 104.85
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.79% 19.2%
1.5 49.11% 50.89%
2.5 22.96% 77.04%
3.5 8.59% 91.41%
4.5 2.65% 97.35%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.03% 19.89
1 15.04% 6.65
2 22.48% 4.45
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.75% 5.97
5+ 18.31% 5.46
Over 2.5 57.46% Under 2.5 42.54%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.39%
Draw 25.51%
Away Win 30.10%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.46%
Under 2.5 42.54%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.64%
No 40.36%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.73% 10.28 13.51% 7.4 76.76% 1.3
-1.5 23.24% 4.3 — 76.76% 1.3
-1.0 23.24% 4.3 21.55% 4.64 55.21% 1.81
-0.5 44.79% 2.23 — 55.21% 1.81
0 (PK) 44.79% 2.23 24.03% 4.16 31.18% 3.21
+0.5 68.82% 1.45 — 31.18% 3.21
+1.0 68.82% 1.45 17.5% 5.71 13.68% 7.31
+1.5 86.32% 1.16 — 13.68% 7.31
+2.0 86.32% 1.16 8.91% 11.22 4.77% 20.95

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.