Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.74%
Fair Odds 2.34
Draw
25.98%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
31.28%
Fair Odds 3.2
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.42% Fair Odds 8.76

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.34 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 3.2 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.42% 8.76
2 2-1 9.02% 11.09
3 1-0 8.52% 11.74
4 1-2 7.65% 13.07
5 0-1 7.23% 13.84
6 2-0 6.73% 14.85
7 2-2 6.04% 16.55
8 0-0 5.39% 18.54
9 0-2 4.84% 20.65
10 3-1 4.75% 21.05
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.39%
18.54
7.23%
13.84
4.84%
20.65
2.16%
46.24
0.72%
138.01
0.19%
514.93
1
8.52%
11.74
11.42%
8.76
7.65%
13.07
3.42%
29.26
1.14%
87.35
0.31%
325.95
2
6.73%
14.85
9.02%
11.09
6.04%
16.55
2.7%
37.04
0.9%
110.57
0.24%
412.54
3
3.55%
28.2
4.75%
21.05
3.18%
31.41
1.42%
70.33
0.48%
209.95
0.13%
783.09
4
1.4%
71.4
1.88%
53.29
1.26%
79.53
0.56%
178.06
0.19%
531.63
0.05%
1984.13
5
0.44%
225.94
0.59%
168.63
0.4%
251.7
0.18%
563.38
0.06%
1680.67
0.02%
6289.31
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.83% · Fair: 120.99
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.39% 18.54
1 15.75% 6.35
2 22.99% 4.35
3 22.38% 4.47
4 16.34% 6.12
5+ 17.15% 5.83
Over 2.5 55.86% Under 2.5 44.14%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.74%
Draw 25.98%
Away Win 31.28%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.86%
Under 2.5 44.14%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.61%
No 41.39%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.8% 11.36 12.93% 7.73 78.26% 1.28
-1.5 21.74% 4.6 — 78.26% 1.28
-1.0 21.74% 4.6 21.35% 4.68 56.91% 1.76
-0.5 43.09% 2.32 — 56.91% 1.76
0 (PK) 43.09% 2.32 24.48% 4.08 32.43% 3.08
+0.5 67.57% 1.48 — 32.43% 3.08
+1.0 67.57% 1.48 18.11% 5.52 14.32% 6.98
+1.5 85.68% 1.17 — 14.32% 6.98
+2.0 85.68% 1.17 9.3% 10.75 5.02% 19.93

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.