Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.03%
Fair Odds 2.38
Draw
26.17%
Fair Odds 3.82
Away Win
31.8%
Fair Odds 3.14
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.54% Fair Odds 8.66

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.38 —
Draw 3.82 —
Away Win 3.14 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.54% 8.66
2 2-1 8.95% 11.18
3 1-0 8.61% 11.61
4 1-2 7.73% 12.93
5 0-1 7.45% 13.43
6 2-0 6.68% 14.98
7 2-2 5.99% 16.68
8 0-0 5.56% 17.99
9 0-2 4.99% 20.04
10 3-1 4.62% 21.64
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.56%
17.99
7.45%
13.43
4.99%
20.04
2.23%
44.87
0.75%
133.94
0.2%
499.75
1
8.61%
11.61
11.54%
8.66
7.73%
12.93
3.45%
28.95
1.16%
86.41
0.31%
322.48
2
6.68%
14.98
8.95%
11.18
5.99%
16.68
2.68%
37.35
0.9%
111.5
0.24%
415.97
3
3.45%
28.99
4.62%
21.64
3.1%
32.29
1.38%
72.3
0.46%
215.8
0.12%
805.15
4
1.34%
74.82
1.79%
55.83
1.2%
83.33
0.54%
186.57
0.18%
556.79
0.05%
2079.0
5
0.41%
241.37
0.56%
180.12
0.37%
268.82
0.17%
601.68
0.06%
1795.33
0.01%
6711.41
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.78% · Fair: 128.57
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.56% 17.99
1 16.06% 6.23
2 23.21% 4.31
3 22.36% 4.47
4 16.15% 6.19
5+ 16.66% 6.00
Over 2.5 55.17% Under 2.5 44.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.03%
Draw 26.17%
Away Win 31.80%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.17%
Under 2.5 44.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.15%
No 41.85%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.42% 11.88 12.68% 7.89 78.9% 1.27
-1.5 21.1% 4.74 — 78.9% 1.27
-1.0 21.1% 4.74 21.25% 4.71 57.65% 1.73
-0.5 42.35% 2.36 — 57.65% 1.73
0 (PK) 42.35% 2.36 24.67% 4.05 32.98% 3.03
+0.5 67.02% 1.49 — 32.98% 3.03
+1.0 67.02% 1.49 18.37% 5.44 14.6% 6.85
+1.5 85.4% 1.17 — 14.6% 6.85
+2.0 85.4% 1.17 9.48% 10.55 5.13% 19.51

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.