Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.1%
Fair Odds 2.49
Draw
26.68%
Fair Odds 3.75
Away Win
33.22%
Fair Odds 3.01
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.86% Fair Odds 8.43

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.49 —
Draw 3.75 —
Away Win 3.01 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.86% 8.43
2 1-0 8.85% 11.3
3 2-1 8.72% 11.47
4 0-1 8.07% 12.4
5 1-2 7.95% 12.59
6 2-0 6.5% 15.37
7 0-0 6.02% 16.61
8 2-2 5.84% 17.12
9 0-2 5.41% 18.5
10 3-1 4.27% 23.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.02%
16.61
8.07%
12.4
5.41%
18.5
2.41%
41.42
0.81%
123.64
0.22%
461.25
1
8.85%
11.3
11.86%
8.43
7.95%
12.59
3.55%
28.18
1.19%
84.11
0.32%
313.87
2
6.5%
15.37
8.72%
11.47
5.84%
17.12
2.61%
38.33
0.87%
114.43
0.23%
426.99
3
3.19%
31.37
4.27%
23.41
2.86%
34.95
1.28%
78.24
0.43%
233.54
0.11%
871.08
4
1.17%
85.37
1.57%
63.71
1.05%
95.09
0.47%
212.9
0.16%
635.32
0.04%
2369.67
5
0.34%
290.36
0.46%
216.68
0.31%
323.42
0.14%
724.11
0.05%
2159.83
0.01%
8064.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.66% · Fair: 151.06
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.01% 22.99%
1.5 43.21% 56.79%
2.5 18.37% 81.63%
3.5 6.19% 93.81%
4.5 1.72% 98.28%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.02% 16.61
1 16.92% 5.91
2 23.77% 4.21
3 22.26% 4.49
4 15.64% 6.39
5+ 15.39% 6.50
Over 2.5 53.29% Under 2.5 46.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.10%
Draw 26.68%
Away Win 33.22%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.29%
Under 2.5 46.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.84%
No 43.16%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.43% 13.46 11.98% 8.35 80.59% 1.24
-1.5 19.41% 5.15 — 80.59% 1.24
-1.0 19.41% 5.15 20.95% 4.77 59.64% 1.68
-0.5 40.36% 2.48 — 59.64% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.36% 2.48 25.17% 3.97 34.47% 2.9
+0.5 65.53% 1.53 — 34.47% 2.9
+1.0 65.53% 1.53 19.09% 5.24 15.38% 6.5
+1.5 84.62% 1.18 — 15.38% 6.5
+2.0 84.62% 1.18 9.95% 10.05 5.43% 18.43

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.