Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.63%
Fair Odds 2.59
Draw
27.04%
Fair Odds 3.7
Away Win
34.32%
Fair Odds 2.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.08% Fair Odds 8.28

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.59 —
Draw 3.7 —
Away Win 2.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.08% 8.28
2 1-0 9.01% 11.09
3 0-1 8.57% 11.67
4 2-1 8.52% 11.74
5 1-2 8.09% 12.36
6 0-0 6.39% 15.64
7 2-0 6.35% 15.74
8 0-2 5.74% 17.42
9 2-2 5.71% 17.53
10 3-1 4.0% 24.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.39%
15.64
8.57%
11.67
5.74%
17.42
2.56%
39.01
0.86%
116.44
0.23%
434.4
1
9.01%
11.09
12.08%
8.28
8.09%
12.36
3.61%
27.66
1.21%
82.58
0.32%
308.17
2
6.35%
15.74
8.52%
11.74
5.71%
17.53
2.55%
39.24
0.85%
117.14
0.23%
437.06
3
2.99%
33.48
4.0%
24.99
2.68%
37.29
1.2%
83.49
0.4%
249.25
0.11%
930.23
4
1.05%
94.98
1.41%
70.88
0.95%
105.8
0.42%
236.85
0.14%
707.21
0.04%
2638.52
5
0.3%
336.81
0.4%
251.38
0.27%
375.09
0.12%
839.63
0.04%
2506.27
0.01%
9345.79
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.59% · Fair: 169.66
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.39% 15.64
1 17.58% 5.69
2 24.17% 4.14
3 22.16% 4.51
4 15.23% 6.56
5+ 14.46% 6.91
Over 2.5 51.85% Under 2.5 48.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.63%
Draw 27.04%
Away Win 34.32%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.85%
Under 2.5 48.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.79%
No 44.21%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.73% 14.86 11.43% 8.75 81.84% 1.22
-1.5 18.16% 5.51 — 81.84% 1.22
-1.0 18.16% 5.51 20.68% 4.84 61.16% 1.63
-0.5 38.84% 2.57 — 61.16% 1.63
0 (PK) 38.84% 2.57 25.53% 3.92 35.64% 2.81
+0.5 64.36% 1.55 — 35.64% 2.81
+1.0 64.36% 1.55 19.65% 5.09 15.99% 6.25
+1.5 84.01% 1.19 — 15.99% 6.25
+2.0 84.01% 1.19 10.32% 9.69 5.66% 17.66

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.