Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.89%
Fair Odds 2.64
Draw
27.22%
Fair Odds 3.67
Away Win
34.89%
Fair Odds 2.87
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.18% Fair Odds 8.21

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.64 —
Draw 3.67 —
Away Win 2.87 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.18% 8.21
2 1-0 9.09% 11.0
3 0-1 8.83% 11.33
4 2-1 8.41% 11.9
5 1-2 8.16% 12.25
6 0-0 6.59% 15.18
7 2-0 6.27% 15.94
8 0-2 5.91% 16.91
9 2-2 5.63% 17.76
10 3-1 3.87% 25.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.59%
15.18
8.83%
11.33
5.91%
16.91
2.64%
37.85
0.89%
112.99
0.24%
421.59
1
9.09%
11.0
12.18%
8.21
8.16%
12.25
3.65%
27.43
1.22%
81.88
0.33%
305.53
2
6.27%
15.94
8.41%
11.9
5.63%
17.76
2.52%
39.76
0.84%
118.67
0.23%
442.87
3
2.89%
34.66
3.87%
25.86
2.59%
38.6
1.16%
86.42
0.39%
258.0
0.1%
962.46
4
1.0%
100.45
1.33%
74.97
0.89%
111.89
0.4%
250.5
0.13%
747.94
0.04%
2793.3
5
0.27%
364.03
0.37%
271.59
0.25%
405.35
0.11%
907.44
0.04%
2710.03
0.01%
10101.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.56% · Fair: 179.66
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.59% 15.18
1 17.92% 5.58
2 24.37% 4.10
3 22.09% 4.53
4 15.02% 6.66
5+ 14.01% 7.14
Over 2.5 51.13% Under 2.5 48.87%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.89%
Draw 27.22%
Away Win 34.89%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.13%
Under 2.5 48.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.25%
No 44.75%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.39% 15.65 11.15% 8.97 82.46% 1.21
-1.5 17.54% 5.7 — 82.46% 1.21
-1.0 17.54% 5.7 20.52% 4.87 61.93% 1.61
-0.5 38.07% 2.63 — 61.93% 1.61
0 (PK) 38.07% 2.63 25.7% 3.89 36.23% 2.76
+0.5 63.77% 1.57 — 36.23% 2.76
+1.0 63.77% 1.57 19.93% 5.02 16.3% 6.13
+1.5 83.7% 1.19 — 16.3% 6.13
+2.0 83.7% 1.19 10.51% 9.51 5.79% 17.28

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.