Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.15%
Fair Odds 2.69
Draw
27.4%
Fair Odds 3.65
Away Win
35.46%
Fair Odds 2.82
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.28% Fair Odds 8.14

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.69 —
Draw 3.65 —
Away Win 2.82 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.28% 8.14
2 1-0 9.16% 10.91
3 0-1 9.1% 10.99
4 2-1 8.29% 12.06
5 1-2 8.23% 12.15
6 0-0 6.79% 14.73
7 2-0 6.19% 16.17
8 0-2 6.09% 16.41
9 2-2 5.55% 18.01
10 3-1 3.73% 26.81
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
9.1%
10.99
6.09%
16.41
2.72%
36.74
0.91%
109.66
0.24%
409.17
1
9.16%
10.91
12.28%
8.14
8.23%
12.15
3.67%
27.21
1.23%
81.23
0.33%
303.12
2
6.19%
16.17
8.29%
12.06
5.55%
18.01
2.48%
40.31
0.83%
120.34
0.22%
449.03
3
2.78%
35.93
3.73%
26.81
2.5%
40.01
1.12%
89.59
0.37%
267.45
0.1%
998.0
4
0.94%
106.45
1.26%
79.43
0.84%
118.57
0.38%
265.46
0.13%
792.39
0.03%
2958.58
5
0.25%
394.17
0.34%
294.2
0.23%
439.17
0.1%
983.28
0.03%
2932.55
0.01%
10989.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.53% · Fair: 189.93
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.15%
Draw 27.40%
Away Win 35.46%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.68%
No 45.32%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.06% 16.5 10.87% 9.2 83.07% 1.2
-1.5 16.93% 5.91 — 83.07% 1.2
-1.0 16.93% 5.91 20.36% 4.91 62.71% 1.59
-0.5 37.29% 2.68 — 62.71% 1.59
0 (PK) 37.29% 2.68 25.87% 3.86 36.83% 2.71
+0.5 63.17% 1.58 — 36.83% 2.71
+1.0 63.17% 1.58 20.21% 4.95 16.62% 6.02
+1.5 83.38% 1.2 — 16.62% 6.02
+2.0 83.38% 1.2 10.71% 9.34 5.91% 16.92

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.