Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.13%
Fair Odds 2.93
Draw
27.79%
Fair Odds 3.6
Away Win
38.08%
Fair Odds 2.63
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.49% Fair Odds 8.01

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.93 —
Draw 3.6 —
Away Win 2.63 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.49% 8.01
2 0-1 9.76% 10.25
3 1-0 9.32% 10.73
4 1-2 8.37% 11.95
5 2-1 7.99% 12.51
6 0-0 7.28% 13.74
7 0-2 6.54% 15.3
8 2-0 5.96% 16.77
9 2-2 5.35% 18.68
10 1-3 3.74% 26.76
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.28%
13.74
9.76%
10.25
6.54%
15.3
2.92%
34.25
0.98%
102.25
0.26%
381.53
1
9.32%
10.73
12.49%
8.01
8.37%
11.95
3.74%
26.76
1.25%
79.88
0.34%
298.06
2
5.96%
16.77
7.99%
12.51
5.35%
18.68
2.39%
41.81
0.8%
124.81
0.21%
465.77
3
2.54%
39.3
3.41%
29.33
2.28%
43.77
1.02%
98.0
0.34%
292.57
0.09%
1091.7
4
0.81%
122.8
1.09%
91.65
0.73%
136.78
0.33%
306.28
0.11%
914.08
0.03%
3412.97
5
0.21%
479.62
0.28%
358.04
0.19%
534.19
0.08%
1196.17
0.03%
3571.43
0.01%
13333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.47% · Fair: 215.05
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.28% 13.74
1 19.07% 5.24
2 24.99% 4.00
3 21.82% 4.58
4 14.29% 7.00
5+ 12.54% 7.97
Over 2.5 48.66% Under 2.5 51.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.13%
Draw 27.79%
Away Win 38.08%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.66%
Under 2.5 51.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.29%
No 46.71%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.32% 18.79 10.19% 9.81 84.48% 1.18
-1.5 15.52% 6.44 — 84.48% 1.18
-1.0 15.52% 6.44 19.95% 5.01 64.53% 1.55
-0.5 35.47% 2.82 — 64.53% 1.55
0 (PK) 35.47% 2.82 26.26% 3.81 38.27% 2.61
+0.5 61.73% 1.62 — 38.27% 2.61
+1.0 61.73% 1.62 20.89% 4.79 17.38% 5.75
+1.5 82.62% 1.21 — 17.38% 5.75
+2.0 82.62% 1.21 11.17% 8.95 6.21% 16.1

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.