Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.61%
Fair Odds 2.97
Draw
27.9%
Fair Odds 3.58
Away Win
38.49%
Fair Odds 2.6
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.54% Fair Odds 7.97

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.97 —
Draw 3.58 —
Away Win 2.6 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.54% 7.97
2 0-1 9.95% 10.05
3 1-0 9.36% 10.69
4 1-2 8.4% 11.9
5 2-1 7.9% 12.66
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 0-2 6.67% 15.0
8 2-0 5.9% 16.96
9 2-2 5.29% 18.89
10 1-3 3.75% 26.65
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
9.95%
10.05
6.67%
15.0
2.98%
33.57
1.0%
100.22
0.27%
373.97
1
9.36%
10.69
12.54%
7.97
8.4%
11.9
3.75%
26.65
1.26%
79.54
0.34%
296.82
2
5.9%
16.96
7.9%
12.66
5.29%
18.89
2.36%
42.3
0.79%
126.25
0.21%
471.03
3
2.48%
40.38
3.32%
30.14
2.22%
44.98
0.99%
100.7
0.33%
300.57
0.09%
1121.08
4
0.78%
128.21
1.05%
95.68
0.7%
142.8
0.31%
319.69
0.1%
954.2
0.03%
3558.72
5
0.2%
508.65
0.26%
379.65
0.18%
566.57
0.08%
1269.04
0.03%
3787.88
0.01%
14084.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.45% · Fair: 222.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.61%
Draw 27.90%
Away Win 38.49%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.88%
No 47.12%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.12% 19.53 10.0% 10.0 84.88% 1.18
-1.5 15.12% 6.61 — 84.88% 1.18
-1.0 15.12% 6.61 19.82% 5.04 65.06% 1.54
-0.5 34.94% 2.86 — 65.06% 1.54
0 (PK) 34.94% 2.86 26.37% 3.79 38.69% 2.58
+0.5 61.31% 1.63 — 38.69% 2.58
+1.0 61.31% 1.63 21.08% 4.74 17.61% 5.68
+1.5 82.39% 1.21 — 17.61% 5.68
+2.0 82.39% 1.21 11.31% 8.84 6.3% 15.87

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.