Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.1%
Fair Odds 3.02
Draw
28.01%
Fair Odds 3.57
Away Win
38.89%
Fair Odds 2.57
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.59% Fair Odds 7.94

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.02 —
Draw 3.57 —
Away Win 2.57 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.59% 7.94
2 0-1 10.15% 9.85
3 1-0 9.4% 10.64
4 1-2 8.44% 11.85
5 2-1 7.81% 12.81
6 0-0 7.58% 13.2
7 0-2 6.8% 14.7
8 2-0 5.83% 17.17
9 2-2 5.23% 19.12
10 1-3 3.77% 26.54
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.58%
13.2
10.15%
9.85
6.8%
14.7
3.04%
32.91
1.02%
98.23
0.27%
366.57
1
9.4%
10.64
12.59%
7.94
8.44%
11.85
3.77%
26.54
1.26%
79.22
0.34%
295.6
2
5.83%
17.17
7.81%
12.81
5.23%
19.12
2.34%
42.81
0.78%
127.78
0.21%
476.87
3
2.41%
41.53
3.23%
30.99
2.16%
46.26
0.97%
103.56
0.32%
309.12
0.09%
1153.4
4
0.75%
133.98
1.0%
99.98
0.67%
149.21
0.3%
334.11
0.1%
997.01
0.03%
3717.47
5
0.19%
540.25
0.25%
403.06
0.17%
601.68
0.07%
1347.71
0.02%
4016.06
0.01%
14925.37
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.43% · Fair: 230.04
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.58% 13.20
1 19.55% 5.12
2 25.22% 3.97
3 21.69% 4.61
4 13.99% 7.15
5+ 11.98% 8.35
Over 2.5 47.65% Under 2.5 52.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.10%
Draw 28.01%
Away Win 38.89%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.65%
Under 2.5 52.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.45%
No 47.55%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.92% 20.31 9.8% 10.2 85.27% 1.17
-1.5 14.73% 6.79 — 85.27% 1.17
-1.0 14.73% 6.79 19.69% 5.08 65.59% 1.52
-0.5 34.41% 2.91 — 65.59% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.41% 2.91 26.47% 3.78 39.11% 2.56
+0.5 60.89% 1.64 — 39.11% 2.56
+1.0 60.89% 1.64 21.28% 4.7 17.84% 5.61
+1.5 82.16% 1.22 — 17.84% 5.61
+2.0 82.16% 1.22 11.45% 8.74 6.39% 15.65

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.