Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.77%
Fair Odds 3.25
Draw
28.46%
Fair Odds 3.51
Away Win
40.77%
Fair Odds 2.45
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.78% Fair Odds 7.83

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.25 —
Draw 3.51 —
Away Win 2.45 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.78% 7.83
2 0-1 11.11% 9.0
3 1-0 9.53% 10.49
4 1-2 8.56% 11.68
5 0-0 8.29% 12.06
6 0-2 7.44% 13.43
7 2-1 7.35% 13.61
8 2-0 5.48% 18.24
9 2-2 4.92% 20.32
10 1-3 3.82% 26.15
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.29%
12.06
11.11%
9.0
7.44%
13.43
3.32%
30.08
1.11%
89.78
0.3%
335.01
1
9.53%
10.49
12.78%
7.83
8.56%
11.68
3.82%
26.15
1.28%
78.07
0.34%
291.29
2
5.48%
18.24
7.35%
13.61
4.92%
20.32
2.2%
45.49
0.74%
135.78
0.2%
506.59
3
2.1%
47.58
2.82%
35.51
1.89%
53.0
0.84%
118.65
0.28%
354.23
0.08%
1321.0
4
0.6%
165.51
0.81%
123.52
0.54%
184.33
0.24%
412.71
0.08%
1231.53
0.02%
4587.16
5
0.14%
719.42
0.19%
537.06
0.12%
801.28
0.06%
1795.33
0.02%
5347.59
0.01%
20000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.38% · Fair: 263.37
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.29% 12.06
1 20.64% 4.84
2 25.70% 3.89
3 21.33% 4.69
4 13.28% 7.53
5+ 10.75% 9.30
Over 2.5 45.36% Under 2.5 54.64%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.77%
Draw 28.46%
Away Win 40.77%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.36%
Under 2.5 54.64%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.44%
No 49.56%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.08% 24.5 8.9% 11.24 87.02% 1.15
-1.5 12.98% 7.7 — 87.02% 1.15
-1.0 12.98% 7.7 19.03% 5.25 67.99% 1.47
-0.5 32.01% 3.12 — 67.99% 1.47
0 (PK) 32.01% 3.12 26.92% 3.71 41.07% 2.43
+0.5 58.93% 1.7 — 41.07% 2.43
+1.0 58.93% 1.7 22.17% 4.51 18.9% 5.29
+1.5 81.1% 1.23 — 18.9% 5.29
+2.0 81.1% 1.23 12.08% 8.28 6.81% 14.68

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.