Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
24.68%
Fair Odds 4.05
Draw
29.41%
Fair Odds 3.4
Away Win
45.92%
Fair Odds 2.18
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.98% Fair Odds 7.15

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.05 —
Draw 3.4 —
Away Win 2.18 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.98% 7.15
2 1-1 12.86% 7.77
3 0-0 10.44% 9.58
4 1-0 9.6% 10.42
5 0-2 9.37% 10.67
6 1-2 8.62% 11.6
7 2-1 5.92% 16.9
8 2-0 4.42% 22.64
9 0-3 4.18% 23.9
10 2-2 3.96% 25.22
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.44%
9.58
13.98%
7.15
9.37%
10.67
4.18%
23.9
1.4%
71.33
0.38%
266.17
1
9.6%
10.42
12.86%
7.77
8.62%
11.6
3.85%
25.97
1.29%
77.54
0.35%
289.35
2
4.42%
22.64
5.92%
16.9
3.96%
25.22
1.77%
56.47
0.59%
168.55
0.16%
628.93
3
1.35%
73.84
1.81%
55.11
1.22%
82.24
0.54%
184.13
0.18%
549.75
0.05%
2049.18
4
0.31%
321.03
0.42%
239.58
0.28%
357.65
0.12%
800.64
0.04%
2392.34
0.01%
8928.57
5
0.06%
1745.2
0.08%
1302.08
0.05%
1941.75
0.02%
4347.83
0.01%
12987.01
0.0%
47619.05
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.3% · Fair: 336.59
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.44% 9.58
1 23.58% 4.24
2 26.65% 3.75
3 20.08% 4.98
4 11.34% 8.82
5+ 7.91% 12.64
Over 2.5 39.33% Under 2.5 60.67%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 24.68%
Draw 29.41%
Away Win 45.92%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.33%
Under 2.5 60.67%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.4%
No 55.6%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.31% 43.37 6.53% 15.3 91.16% 1.1
-1.5 8.84% 11.31 — 91.16% 1.1
-1.0 8.84% 11.31 16.87% 5.93 74.29% 1.35
-0.5 25.71% 3.89 — 74.29% 1.35
0 (PK) 25.71% 3.89 27.85% 3.59 46.44% 2.15
+0.5 53.56% 1.87 — 46.44% 2.15
+1.0 53.56% 1.87 24.57% 4.07 21.88% 4.57
+1.5 78.12% 1.28 — 21.88% 4.57
+2.0 78.12% 1.28 13.86% 7.21 8.01% 12.48

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.