Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
59.59%
Fair Odds 1.68
Draw
20.44%
Fair Odds 4.89
Away Win
19.98%
Fair Odds 5.01
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.25% Fair Odds 10.81

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.68 —
Draw 4.89 —
Away Win 5.01 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.25% 10.81
2 1-1 7.84% 12.76
3 3-1 7.28% 13.74
4 2-0 6.95% 14.38
5 2-2 6.15% 16.26
6 1-0 5.89% 16.97
7 3-0 5.47% 18.28
8 1-2 5.21% 19.18
9 3-2 4.84% 20.67
10 4-1 4.29% 23.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.5%
40.04
3.32%
30.11
2.21%
45.28
0.98%
102.12
0.33%
307.13
0.09%
1154.73
1
5.89%
16.97
7.84%
12.76
5.21%
19.18
2.31%
43.27
0.77%
130.14
0.2%
489.24
2
6.95%
14.38
9.25%
10.81
6.15%
16.26
2.73%
36.67
0.91%
110.29
0.24%
414.59
3
5.47%
18.28
7.28%
13.74
4.84%
20.67
2.15%
46.62
0.71%
140.19
0.19%
527.15
4
3.23%
30.98
4.29%
23.29
2.85%
35.03
1.27%
79.01
0.42%
237.64
0.11%
893.66
5
1.52%
65.64
2.03%
49.35
1.35%
74.21
0.6%
167.39
0.2%
503.52
0.05%
1893.94
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.57% · Fair: 28.02
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 90.55% 9.44%
1.5 68.27% 31.73%
2.5 41.98% 58.02%
3.5 21.29% 78.7%
4.5 9.09% 90.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.50% 40.04
1 9.22% 10.85
2 17.00% 5.88
3 20.91% 4.78
4 19.29% 5.18
5+ 31.08% 3.22
Over 2.5 71.28% Under 2.5 28.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 59.59%
Draw 20.44%
Away Win 19.98%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 71.28%
Under 2.5 28.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 66.6%
No 33.4%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 21.1% 4.74 17.77% 5.63 61.13% 1.64
-1.5 38.87% 2.57 — 61.13% 1.64
-1.0 38.87% 2.57 21.47% 4.66 39.66% 2.52
-0.5 60.34% 1.66 — 39.66% 2.52
0 (PK) 60.34% 1.66 19.11% 5.23 20.55% 4.87
+0.5 79.45% 1.26 — 20.55% 4.87
+1.0 79.45% 1.26 12.1% 8.27 8.45% 11.83
+1.5 91.55% 1.09 — 8.45% 11.83
+2.0 91.55% 1.09 5.64% 17.72 2.81% 35.62

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.