Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
50.67%
Fair Odds 1.97
Draw
23.64%
Fair Odds 4.23
Away Win
25.68%
Fair Odds 3.89
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.9% Fair Odds 10.1

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.97 —
Draw 4.23 —
Away Win 3.89 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.9% 10.1
2 2-1 9.51% 10.52
3 1-0 7.44% 13.43
4 2-0 7.15% 13.99
5 1-2 6.58% 15.19
6 2-2 6.32% 15.82
7 3-1 6.08% 16.44
8 0-1 5.16% 19.39
9 3-0 4.57% 21.86
10 3-2 4.05% 24.72
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.88%
25.79
5.16%
19.39
3.43%
29.16
1.52%
65.77
0.51%
197.82
0.13%
743.49
1
7.44%
13.43
9.9%
10.1
6.58%
15.19
2.92%
34.26
0.97%
103.03
0.26%
387.3
2
7.15%
13.99
9.51%
10.52
6.32%
15.82
2.8%
35.68
0.93%
107.32
0.25%
403.39
3
4.57%
21.86
6.08%
16.44
4.05%
24.72
1.79%
55.76
0.6%
167.7
0.16%
630.52
4
2.2%
45.55
2.92%
34.25
1.94%
51.5
0.86%
116.16
0.29%
349.41
0.08%
1314.06
5
0.84%
118.61
1.12%
89.18
0.75%
134.1
0.33%
302.48
0.11%
909.92
0.03%
3424.66
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.63% · Fair: 61.34
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 85.34% 14.66%
1.5 57.19% 42.81%
2.5 30.17% 69.83%
3.5 12.87% 87.13%
4.5 4.57% 95.43%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.88% 25.79
1 12.60% 7.94
2 20.48% 4.88
3 22.18% 4.51
4 18.02% 5.55
5+ 22.83% 4.38
Over 2.5 63.04% Under 2.5 36.96%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 50.67%
Draw 23.64%
Away Win 25.68%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.04%
Under 2.5 36.96%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.77%
No 37.23%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.73% 7.28 15.54% 6.43 70.73% 1.41
-1.5 29.27% 3.42 — 70.73% 1.41
-1.0 29.27% 3.42 21.98% 4.55 48.75% 2.05
-0.5 51.25% 1.95 — 48.75% 2.05
0 (PK) 51.25% 1.95 22.21% 4.5 26.54% 3.77
+0.5 73.46% 1.36 — 26.54% 3.77
+1.0 73.46% 1.36 15.22% 6.57 11.32% 8.84
+1.5 88.68% 1.13 — 11.32% 8.84
+2.0 88.68% 1.13 7.46% 13.41 3.86% 25.92

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.