Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.29%
Fair Odds 2.21
Draw
25.34%
Fair Odds 3.95
Away Win
29.37%
Fair Odds 3.4
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.01% Fair Odds 9.08

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.21 —
Draw 3.95 —
Away Win 3.4 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.01% 9.08
2 2-1 9.25% 10.81
3 1-0 8.28% 12.08
4 1-2 7.32% 13.65
5 2-0 6.96% 14.38
6 0-1 6.56% 15.25
7 2-2 6.15% 16.25
8 3-1 5.18% 19.3
9 0-0 4.93% 20.29
10 0-2 4.36% 22.94
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.93%
20.29
6.56%
15.25
4.36%
22.94
1.93%
51.74
0.64%
155.62
0.17%
585.14
1
8.28%
12.08
11.01%
9.08
7.32%
13.65
3.25%
30.8
1.08%
92.63
0.29%
348.19
2
6.96%
14.38
9.25%
10.81
6.15%
16.25
2.73%
36.66
0.91%
110.27
0.24%
414.59
3
3.9%
25.67
5.18%
19.3
3.45%
29.03
1.53%
65.47
0.51%
196.89
0.14%
740.19
4
1.64%
61.12
2.18%
45.96
1.45%
69.11
0.64%
155.88
0.21%
468.82
0.06%
1763.67
5
0.55%
181.92
0.73%
136.78
0.49%
205.68
0.22%
464.04
0.07%
1394.7
0.02%
5235.6
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.0% · Fair: 99.51
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.36% 18.64%
1.5 50.05% 49.95%
2.5 23.75% 76.25%
3.5 9.02% 90.98%
4.5 2.84% 97.16%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.93% 20.29
1 14.84% 6.74
2 22.33% 4.48
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.86% 5.93
5+ 18.64% 5.36
Over 2.5 57.9% Under 2.5 42.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.29%
Draw 25.34%
Away Win 29.37%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.9%
Under 2.5 42.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.84%
No 40.16%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.2% 9.8 13.82% 7.24 75.98% 1.32
-1.5 24.02% 4.16 — 75.98% 1.32
-1.0 24.02% 4.16 21.7% 4.61 54.28% 1.84
-0.5 45.72% 2.19 — 54.28% 1.84
0 (PK) 45.72% 2.19 23.86% 4.19 30.42% 3.29
+0.5 69.58% 1.44 — 30.42% 3.29
+1.0 69.58% 1.44 17.18% 5.82 13.25% 7.55
+1.5 86.75% 1.15 — 13.25% 7.55
+2.0 86.75% 1.15 8.66% 11.54 4.58% 21.81

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.