Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.36%
Fair Odds 2.25
Draw
25.61%
Fair Odds 3.91
Away Win
30.03%
Fair Odds 3.33
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.19% Fair Odds 8.94

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.25 —
Draw 3.91 —
Away Win 3.33 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.19% 8.94
2 2-1 9.18% 10.9
3 1-0 8.41% 11.89
4 1-2 7.44% 13.44
5 2-0 6.9% 14.49
6 0-1 6.82% 14.66
7 2-2 6.1% 16.39
8 0-0 5.13% 19.49
9 3-1 5.02% 19.94
10 0-2 4.54% 22.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.13%
19.49
6.82%
14.66
4.54%
22.04
2.01%
49.71
0.67%
149.5
0.18%
562.11
1
8.41%
11.89
11.19%
8.94
7.44%
13.44
3.3%
30.31
1.1%
91.17
0.29%
342.7
2
6.9%
14.49
9.18%
10.9
6.1%
16.39
2.71%
36.97
0.9%
111.17
0.24%
417.89
3
3.77%
26.51
5.02%
19.94
3.34%
29.98
1.48%
67.62
0.49%
203.38
0.13%
764.53
4
1.55%
64.67
2.06%
48.62
1.37%
73.12
0.61%
164.93
0.2%
496.03
0.05%
1865.67
5
0.51%
197.16
0.67%
148.24
0.45%
222.92
0.2%
502.77
0.07%
1512.86
0.02%
5681.82
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.93% · Fair: 108.07
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.13% 19.49
1 15.24% 6.56
2 22.63% 4.42
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.63% 6.01
5+ 17.97% 5.56
Over 2.5 57.01% Under 2.5 42.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.36%
Draw 25.61%
Away Win 30.03%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.01%
Under 2.5 42.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.28%
No 40.72%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.66% 10.36 13.5% 7.41 76.84% 1.3
-1.5 23.16% 4.32 — 76.84% 1.3
-1.0 23.16% 4.32 21.6% 4.63 55.24% 1.81
-0.5 44.76% 2.23 — 55.24% 1.81
0 (PK) 44.76% 2.23 24.12% 4.15 31.12% 3.21
+0.5 68.88% 1.45 — 31.12% 3.21
+1.0 68.88% 1.45 17.52% 5.71 13.6% 7.35
+1.5 86.4% 1.16 — 13.6% 7.35
+2.0 86.4% 1.16 8.88% 11.26 4.72% 21.2

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.