Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.59%
Fair Odds 2.66
Draw
27.39%
Fair Odds 3.65
Away Win
35.01%
Fair Odds 2.86
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.28% Fair Odds 8.14

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.66 —
Draw 3.65 —
Away Win 2.86 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.28% 8.14
2 1-0 9.23% 10.83
3 0-1 9.03% 11.08
4 2-1 8.35% 11.98
5 1-2 8.17% 12.25
6 0-0 6.79% 14.73
7 2-0 6.28% 15.93
8 0-2 6.0% 16.66
9 2-2 5.55% 18.01
10 3-1 3.79% 26.42
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
9.03%
11.08
6.0%
16.66
2.66%
37.57
0.89%
112.99
0.24%
424.81
1
9.23%
10.83
12.28%
8.14
8.17%
12.25
3.62%
27.63
1.2%
83.08
0.32%
312.3
2
6.28%
15.93
8.35%
11.98
5.55%
18.01
2.46%
40.63
0.82%
122.19
0.22%
459.35
3
2.85%
35.14
3.79%
26.42
2.52%
39.73
1.12%
89.61
0.37%
269.54
0.1%
1013.17
4
0.97%
103.35
1.29%
77.71
0.86%
116.85
0.38%
263.57
0.13%
792.39
0.03%
2976.19
5
0.26%
379.94
0.35%
285.71
0.23%
429.55
0.1%
968.99
0.03%
2915.45
0.01%
10989.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.53% · Fair: 189.9
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.33% 25.67%
1.5 39.43% 60.57%
2.5 15.69% 84.31%
3.5 4.93% 95.07%
4.5 1.27% 98.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.59%
Draw 27.39%
Away Win 35.01%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.67%
No 45.33%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.21% 16.09 11.03% 9.07 82.76% 1.21
-1.5 17.24% 5.8 — 82.76% 1.21
-1.0 17.24% 5.8 20.51% 4.87 62.24% 1.61
-0.5 37.76% 2.65 — 62.24% 1.61
0 (PK) 37.76% 2.65 25.87% 3.87 36.37% 2.75
+0.5 63.63% 1.57 — 36.37% 2.75
+1.0 63.63% 1.57 20.06% 4.98 16.31% 6.13
+1.5 83.69% 1.19 — 16.31% 6.13
+2.0 83.69% 1.19 10.55% 9.48 5.76% 17.35

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.