Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.06%
Fair Odds 2.94
Draw
27.91%
Fair Odds 3.58
Away Win
38.03%
Fair Odds 2.63
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.55% Fair Odds 7.97

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.94 —
Draw 3.58 —
Away Win 2.63 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.55% 7.97
2 0-1 9.88% 10.12
3 1-0 9.43% 10.6
4 1-2 8.34% 11.99
5 2-1 7.97% 12.55
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 0-2 6.57% 15.22
8 2-0 5.99% 16.7
9 2-2 5.3% 18.88
10 1-3 3.7% 27.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
9.88%
10.12
6.57%
15.22
2.91%
34.34
0.97%
103.27
0.26%
388.2
1
9.43%
10.6
12.55%
7.97
8.34%
11.99
3.7%
27.04
1.23%
81.31
0.33%
305.72
2
5.99%
16.7
7.97%
12.55
5.3%
18.88
2.35%
42.58
0.78%
128.06
0.21%
481.46
3
2.54%
39.44
3.37%
29.65
2.24%
44.59
0.99%
100.57
0.33%
302.48
0.09%
1137.66
4
0.81%
124.21
1.07%
93.39
0.71%
140.43
0.32%
316.76
0.1%
952.38
0.03%
3584.23
5
0.2%
489.0
0.27%
367.65
0.18%
552.79
0.08%
1246.88
0.03%
3745.32
0.01%
14084.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.45% · Fair: 223.46
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.06%
Draw 27.91%
Away Win 38.03%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.9%
No 47.1%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.26% 19.01 10.16% 9.84 84.58% 1.18
-1.5 15.42% 6.49 — 84.58% 1.18
-1.0 15.42% 6.49 19.99% 5.0 64.59% 1.55
-0.5 35.41% 2.82 — 64.59% 1.55
0 (PK) 35.41% 2.82 26.38% 3.79 38.22% 2.62
+0.5 61.78% 1.62 — 38.22% 2.62
+1.0 61.78% 1.62 20.93% 4.78 17.29% 5.78
+1.5 82.71% 1.21 — 17.29% 5.78
+2.0 82.71% 1.21 11.14% 8.97 6.14% 16.28

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.