Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.8%
Fair Odds 2.96
Draw
27.97%
Fair Odds 3.58
Away Win
38.23%
Fair Odds 2.62
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.57% Fair Odds 7.95

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.96 —
Draw 3.58 —
Away Win 2.62 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.57% 7.95
2 0-1 9.98% 10.02
3 1-0 9.45% 10.58
4 1-2 8.36% 11.96
5 2-1 7.92% 12.63
6 0-0 7.5% 13.33
7 0-2 6.64% 15.07
8 2-0 5.96% 16.79
9 2-2 5.27% 18.99
10 1-3 3.71% 26.98
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.5%
13.33
9.98%
10.02
6.64%
15.07
2.94%
34.0
0.98%
102.24
0.26%
384.32
1
9.45%
10.58
12.57%
7.95
8.36%
11.96
3.71%
26.98
1.23%
81.14
0.33%
305.06
2
5.96%
16.79
7.92%
12.63
5.27%
18.99
2.33%
42.83
0.78%
128.8
0.21%
484.26
3
2.5%
39.98
3.33%
30.06
2.21%
45.21
0.98%
101.97
0.33%
306.65
0.09%
1153.4
4
0.79%
126.92
1.05%
95.43
0.7%
143.51
0.31%
323.73
0.1%
973.71
0.03%
3663.0
5
0.2%
503.78
0.26%
378.64
0.18%
569.48
0.08%
1285.35
0.03%
3861.0
0.01%
14492.75
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.44% · Fair: 227.17
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.63% 28.37%
1.5 35.89% 64.11%
2.5 13.38% 86.62%
3.5 3.92% 96.08%
4.5 0.94% 99.06%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.50% 13.33
1 19.43% 5.15
2 25.16% 3.97
3 21.72% 4.60
4 14.07% 7.11
5+ 12.12% 8.25
Over 2.5 47.91% Under 2.5 52.09%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.80%
Draw 27.97%
Away Win 38.23%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.91%
Under 2.5 52.09%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.69%
No 47.31%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.16% 19.39 10.06% 9.94 84.78% 1.18
-1.5 15.22% 6.57 — 84.78% 1.18
-1.0 15.22% 6.57 19.92% 5.02 64.86% 1.54
-0.5 35.14% 2.85 — 64.86% 1.54
0 (PK) 35.14% 2.85 26.43% 3.78 38.43% 2.6
+0.5 61.57% 1.62 — 38.43% 2.6
+1.0 61.57% 1.62 21.03% 4.76 17.4% 5.75
+1.5 82.6% 1.21 — 17.4% 5.75
+2.0 82.6% 1.21 11.21% 8.92 6.19% 16.16

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.