Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.95%
Fair Odds 3.23
Draw
28.54%
Fair Odds 3.5
Away Win
40.51%
Fair Odds 2.47
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.81% Fair Odds 7.81

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.23 —
Draw 3.5 —
Away Win 2.47 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.81% 7.81
2 0-1 11.14% 8.98
3 1-0 9.63% 10.38
4 1-2 8.52% 11.74
5 0-0 8.37% 11.94
6 0-2 7.41% 13.5
7 2-1 7.36% 13.58
8 2-0 5.54% 18.06
9 2-2 4.9% 20.42
10 1-3 3.78% 26.48
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.37%
11.94
11.14%
8.98
7.41%
13.5
3.28%
30.45
1.09%
91.59
0.29%
344.35
1
9.63%
10.38
12.81%
7.81
8.52%
11.74
3.78%
26.48
1.26%
79.64
0.33%
299.4
2
5.54%
18.06
7.36%
13.58
4.9%
20.42
2.17%
46.06
0.72%
138.5
0.19%
520.83
3
2.12%
47.11
2.82%
35.42
1.88%
53.27
0.83%
120.15
0.28%
361.4
0.07%
1358.7
4
0.61%
163.85
0.81%
123.2
0.54%
185.25
0.24%
417.89
0.08%
1256.28
0.02%
4716.98
5
0.14%
712.25
0.19%
535.62
0.12%
805.8
0.06%
1818.18
0.02%
5464.48
0.0%
20408.16
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.37% · Fair: 270.12
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.37% 11.94
1 20.77% 4.82
2 25.75% 3.88
3 21.29% 4.70
4 13.20% 7.58
5+ 10.62% 9.42
Over 2.5 45.1% Under 2.5 54.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.95%
Draw 28.54%
Away Win 40.51%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.1%
Under 2.5 54.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.26%
No 49.74%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.11% 24.32 8.96% 11.16 86.93% 1.15
-1.5 13.07% 7.65 — 86.93% 1.15
-1.0 13.07% 7.65 19.13% 5.23 67.8% 1.47
-0.5 32.2% 3.11 — 67.8% 1.47
0 (PK) 32.2% 3.11 27.0% 3.7 40.8% 2.45
+0.5 59.2% 1.69 — 40.8% 2.45
+1.0 59.2% 1.69 22.13% 4.52 18.67% 5.36
+1.5 81.33% 1.23 — 18.67% 5.36
+2.0 81.33% 1.23 11.98% 8.34 6.69% 14.95

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.