Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.25%
Fair Odds 3.67
Draw
29.18%
Fair Odds 3.43
Away Win
43.57%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.94% Fair Odds 7.73

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.67 —
Draw 3.43 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.94% 7.73
2 0-1 12.81% 7.81
3 1-0 9.73% 10.28
4 0-0 9.63% 10.38
5 1-2 8.6% 11.62
6 0-2 8.52% 11.74
7 2-1 6.53% 15.3
8 2-0 4.91% 20.35
9 2-2 4.35% 23.01
10 1-3 3.81% 26.21
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.63%
10.38
12.81%
7.81
8.52%
11.74
3.78%
26.48
1.26%
79.62
0.33%
299.31
1
9.73%
10.28
12.94%
7.73
8.6%
11.62
3.81%
26.21
1.27%
78.84
0.34%
296.38
2
4.91%
20.35
6.53%
15.3
4.35%
23.01
1.93%
51.91
0.64%
156.1
0.17%
586.85
3
1.65%
60.46
2.2%
45.45
1.46%
68.35
0.65%
154.18
0.22%
463.61
0.06%
1742.16
4
0.42%
239.41
0.56%
180.02
0.37%
270.71
0.16%
610.5
0.05%
1834.86
0.01%
6896.55
5
0.08%
1184.83
0.11%
891.27
0.07%
1340.48
0.03%
3021.15
0.01%
9090.91
0.0%
34482.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.31% · Fair: 321.13
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 63.58% 36.42%
1.5 26.79% 73.21%
2.5 8.21% 91.79%
3.5 1.96% 98.04%
4.5 0.38% 99.62%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.63% 10.38
1 22.54% 4.44
2 26.37% 3.79
3 20.57% 4.86
4 12.03% 8.31
5+ 8.85% 11.30
Over 2.5 41.45% Under 2.5 58.55%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.25%
Draw 29.18%
Away Win 43.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.45%
Under 2.5 58.55%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.76%
No 53.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.96% 33.8 7.52% 13.3 89.52% 1.12
-1.5 10.48% 9.55 — 89.52% 1.12
-1.0 10.48% 9.55 17.9% 5.59 71.62% 1.4
-0.5 28.38% 3.52 — 71.62% 1.4
0 (PK) 28.38% 3.52 27.62% 3.62 44.0% 2.27
+0.5 56.0% 1.79 — 44.0% 2.27
+1.0 56.0% 1.79 23.57% 4.24 20.42% 4.9
+1.5 79.58% 1.26 — 20.42% 4.9
+2.0 79.58% 1.26 13.04% 7.67 7.39% 13.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.