Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
55.3%
Fair Odds 1.81
Draw
22.11%
Fair Odds 4.52
Away Win
22.6%
Fair Odds 4.42
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.51% Fair Odds 10.52

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.81 —
Draw 4.52 —
Away Win 4.42 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.51% 10.52
2 1-1 8.93% 11.2
3 2-0 7.2% 13.89
4 1-0 6.76% 14.79
5 3-1 6.75% 14.82
6 2-2 6.27% 15.94
7 1-2 5.89% 16.98
8 3-0 5.11% 19.56
9 3-2 4.45% 22.45
10 0-1 4.19% 23.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.17%
31.5
4.19%
23.86
2.77%
36.16
1.22%
82.18
0.4%
249.0
0.11%
943.4
1
6.76%
14.79
8.93%
11.2
5.89%
16.98
2.59%
38.58
0.86%
116.9
0.23%
442.87
2
7.2%
13.89
9.51%
10.52
6.27%
15.94
2.76%
36.23
0.91%
109.77
0.24%
415.8
3
5.11%
19.56
6.75%
14.82
4.45%
22.45
1.96%
51.02
0.65%
154.61
0.17%
585.48
4
2.72%
36.73
3.59%
27.82
2.37%
42.16
1.04%
95.81
0.34%
290.36
0.09%
1100.11
5
1.16%
86.21
1.53%
65.32
1.01%
98.96
0.44%
224.92
0.15%
681.66
0.04%
2583.98
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.41% · Fair: 41.56
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 88.11% 11.88%
1.5 62.8% 37.2%
2.5 35.84% 64.15%
3.5 16.7% 83.29%
4.5 6.51% 93.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.17% 31.50
1 10.95% 9.13
2 18.89% 5.29
3 21.73% 4.60
4 18.74% 5.34
5+ 26.51% 3.77
Over 2.5 66.98% Under 2.5 33.02%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 55.30%
Draw 22.11%
Away Win 22.60%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 66.98%
Under 2.5 33.02%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.58%
No 35.42%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 17.23% 5.8 16.82% 5.94 65.95% 1.52
-1.5 34.05% 2.94 — 65.95% 1.52
-1.0 34.05% 2.94 21.93% 4.56 44.02% 2.27
-0.5 55.98% 1.79 — 44.02% 2.27
0 (PK) 55.98% 1.79 20.72% 4.83 23.3% 4.29
+0.5 76.7% 1.3 — 23.3% 4.29
+1.0 76.7% 1.3 13.59% 7.36 9.71% 10.3
+1.5 90.29% 1.11 — 9.71% 10.3
+2.0 90.29% 1.11 6.46% 15.48 3.25% 30.76

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.