Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.04%
Fair Odds 2.63
Draw
27.39%
Fair Odds 3.65
Away Win
34.57%
Fair Odds 2.89
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.28% Fair Odds 8.15

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.63 —
Draw 3.65 —
Away Win 2.89 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.28% 8.15
2 1-0 9.3% 10.75
3 0-1 8.96% 11.16
4 2-1 8.41% 11.89
5 1-2 8.1% 12.34
6 0-0 6.79% 14.73
7 2-0 6.37% 15.7
8 0-2 5.91% 16.91
9 2-2 5.55% 18.02
10 3-1 3.84% 26.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
8.96%
11.16
5.91%
16.91
2.6%
38.43
0.86%
116.46
0.23%
441.11
1
9.3%
10.75
12.28%
8.15
8.1%
12.34
3.56%
28.05
1.18%
85.01
0.31%
321.96
2
6.37%
15.7
8.41%
11.89
5.55%
18.02
2.44%
40.95
0.81%
124.1
0.21%
470.15
3
2.91%
34.37
3.84%
26.04
2.53%
39.46
1.12%
89.68
0.37%
271.74
0.1%
1028.81
4
1.0%
100.36
1.32%
76.03
0.87%
115.21
0.38%
261.85
0.13%
793.65
0.03%
3003.0
5
0.27%
366.3
0.36%
277.47
0.24%
420.52
0.1%
955.11
0.03%
2898.55
0.01%
10989.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.53% · Fair: 189.43
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.04%
Draw 27.39%
Away Win 34.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.66%
No 45.34%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.37% 15.7 11.19% 8.94 82.44% 1.21
-1.5 17.56% 5.69 — 82.44% 1.21
-1.0 17.56% 5.69 20.66% 4.84 61.78% 1.62
-0.5 38.22% 2.62 — 61.78% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.22% 2.62 25.86% 3.87 35.91% 2.78
+0.5 64.09% 1.56 — 35.91% 2.78
+1.0 64.09% 1.56 19.91% 5.02 16.01% 6.25
+1.5 83.99% 1.19 — 16.01% 6.25
+2.0 83.99% 1.19 10.39% 9.63 5.62% 17.8

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.