Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.95%
Fair Odds 3.58
Draw
29.19%
Fair Odds 3.43
Away Win
42.86%
Fair Odds 2.33
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.97% Fair Odds 7.71

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.58 —
Draw 3.43 —
Away Win 2.33 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.97% 7.71
2 0-1 12.59% 7.94
3 1-0 9.82% 10.18
4 0-0 9.54% 10.49
5 1-2 8.56% 11.69
6 0-2 8.31% 12.04
7 2-1 6.68% 14.98
8 2-0 5.06% 19.77
9 2-2 4.41% 22.69
10 1-3 3.77% 26.56
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.54%
10.49
12.59%
7.94
8.31%
12.04
3.66%
27.35
1.21%
82.89
0.32%
313.97
1
9.82%
10.18
12.97%
7.71
8.56%
11.69
3.77%
26.56
1.24%
80.48
0.33%
304.88
2
5.06%
19.77
6.68%
14.98
4.41%
22.69
1.94%
51.57
0.64%
156.27
0.17%
592.07
3
1.74%
57.57
2.29%
43.62
1.51%
66.09
0.67%
150.2
0.22%
455.17
0.06%
1724.14
4
0.45%
223.61
0.59%
169.38
0.39%
256.67
0.17%
583.43
0.06%
1766.78
0.01%
6711.41
5
0.09%
1085.78
0.12%
822.37
0.08%
1245.33
0.04%
2832.86
0.01%
8547.01
0.0%
32258.06
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.31% · Fair: 323.1
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.3% 35.7%
1.5 27.53% 72.47%
2.5 8.59% 91.41%
3.5 2.09% 97.91%
4.5 0.41% 99.59%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.54% 10.49
1 22.41% 4.46
2 26.33% 3.80
3 20.63% 4.85
4 12.12% 8.25
5+ 8.97% 11.15
Over 2.5 41.72% Under 2.5 58.28%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.95%
Draw 29.19%
Away Win 42.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.72%
Under 2.5 58.28%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.12%
No 52.88%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.13% 31.9 7.78% 12.86 89.09% 1.12
-1.5 10.91% 9.16 — 89.09% 1.12
-1.0 10.91% 9.16 18.2% 5.5 70.89% 1.41
-0.5 29.11% 3.44 — 70.89% 1.41
0 (PK) 29.11% 3.44 27.64% 3.62 43.25% 2.31
+0.5 56.75% 1.76 — 43.25% 2.31
+1.0 56.75% 1.76 23.32% 4.29 19.93% 5.02
+1.5 80.07% 1.25 — 19.93% 5.02
+2.0 80.07% 1.25 12.78% 7.83 7.16% 13.97

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.