Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
58.48%
Fair Odds 1.71
Draw
20.98%
Fair Odds 4.77
Away Win
20.54%
Fair Odds 4.87
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.4% Fair Odds 10.64

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.71 —
Draw 4.77 —
Away Win 4.87 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.4% 10.64
2 1-1 8.24% 12.13
3 2-0 7.17% 13.94
4 3-1 7.14% 14.0
5 1-0 6.29% 15.89
6 2-2 6.16% 16.25
7 3-0 5.45% 18.34
8 1-2 5.4% 18.52
9 3-2 4.68% 21.38
10 4-1 4.07% 24.56
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.76%
36.23
3.62%
27.66
2.37%
42.23
1.03%
96.7
0.34%
295.25
0.09%
1127.4
1
6.29%
15.89
8.24%
12.13
5.4%
18.52
2.36%
42.41
0.77%
129.5
0.2%
494.32
2
7.17%
13.94
9.4%
10.64
6.16%
16.25
2.69%
37.21
0.88%
113.6
0.23%
433.65
3
5.45%
18.34
7.14%
14.0
4.68%
21.38
2.04%
48.95
0.67%
149.48
0.18%
570.45
4
3.11%
32.18
4.07%
24.56
2.67%
37.5
1.16%
85.88
0.38%
262.26
0.1%
1001.0
5
1.42%
70.57
1.86%
53.87
1.22%
82.24
0.53%
188.36
0.17%
575.04
0.05%
2192.98
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.11% · Fair: 32.12
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 89.77% 10.23%
1.5 66.45% 33.55%
2.5 39.86% 60.13%
3.5 19.66% 80.34%
4.5 8.14% 91.86%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.76% 36.23
1 9.91% 10.09
2 17.79% 5.62
3 21.28% 4.70
4 19.10% 5.24
5+ 29.16% 3.43
Over 2.5 69.55% Under 2.5 30.45%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 58.48%
Draw 20.98%
Away Win 20.54%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 69.55%
Under 2.5 30.45%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 65.55%
No 34.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 19.91% 5.02 17.58% 5.69 62.5% 1.6
-1.5 37.5% 2.67 — 62.5% 1.6
-1.0 37.5% 2.67 21.72% 4.6 40.78% 2.45
-0.5 59.22% 1.69 — 40.78% 2.45
0 (PK) 59.22% 1.69 19.63% 5.09 21.14% 4.73
+0.5 78.85% 1.27 — 21.14% 4.73
+1.0 78.85% 1.27 12.48% 8.01 8.66% 11.54
+1.5 91.33% 1.09 — 8.66% 11.54
+2.0 91.33% 1.09 5.81% 17.23 2.86% 34.99

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.