Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
50.01%
Fair Odds 2.0
Draw
24.01%
Fair Odds 4.16
Away Win
25.98%
Fair Odds 3.85
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.19% Fair Odds 9.82

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.0 —
Draw 4.16 —
Away Win 3.85 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.19% 9.82
2 2-1 9.53% 10.5
3 1-0 7.78% 12.86
4 2-0 7.27% 13.75
5 1-2 6.67% 14.99
6 2-2 6.24% 16.03
7 3-1 5.94% 16.84
8 0-1 5.45% 18.36
9 3-0 4.53% 22.06
10 0-0 4.16% 24.05
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.16%
24.05
5.45%
18.36
3.57%
28.02
1.56%
64.18
0.51%
195.96
0.13%
747.94
1
7.78%
12.86
10.19%
9.82
6.67%
14.99
2.91%
34.32
0.95%
104.8
0.25%
400.0
2
7.27%
13.75
9.53%
10.5
6.24%
16.03
2.72%
36.71
0.89%
112.08
0.23%
427.72
3
4.53%
22.06
5.94%
16.84
3.89%
25.71
1.7%
58.89
0.56%
179.79
0.15%
686.34
4
2.12%
47.19
2.78%
36.03
1.82%
55.0
0.79%
125.96
0.26%
384.62
0.07%
1468.43
5
0.79%
126.18
1.04%
96.33
0.68%
147.06
0.3%
336.81
0.1%
1028.81
0.03%
3921.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.46% · Fair: 68.5
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.59% 15.41%
1.5 55.77% 44.23%
2.5 28.82% 71.18%
3.5 12.02% 87.98%
4.5 4.17% 95.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.16% 24.05
1 13.22% 7.56
2 21.03% 4.76
3 22.29% 4.49
4 17.72% 5.64
5+ 21.58% 4.63
Over 2.5 61.59% Under 2.5 38.41%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 50.01%
Draw 24.01%
Away Win 25.98%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.59%
Under 2.5 38.41%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.76%
No 38.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.13% 7.62 15.36% 6.51 71.52% 1.4
-1.5 28.48% 3.51 — 71.52% 1.4
-1.0 28.48% 3.51 22.09% 4.53 49.43% 2.02
-0.5 50.57% 1.98 — 49.43% 2.02
0 (PK) 50.57% 1.98 22.57% 4.43 26.86% 3.72
+0.5 73.14% 1.37 — 26.86% 3.72
+1.0 73.14% 1.37 15.47% 6.46 11.38% 8.78
+1.5 88.62% 1.13 — 11.38% 8.78
+2.0 88.62% 1.13 7.54% 13.27 3.85% 25.99

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.