Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.18%
Fair Odds 2.17
Draw
25.24%
Fair Odds 3.96
Away Win
28.59%
Fair Odds 3.5
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.98% Fair Odds 9.11

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.17 —
Draw 3.96 —
Away Win 3.5 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.98% 9.11
2 2-1 9.33% 10.72
3 1-0 8.38% 11.93
4 1-2 7.19% 13.91
5 2-0 7.12% 14.04
6 0-1 6.46% 15.49
7 2-2 6.11% 16.36
8 3-1 5.29% 18.91
9 0-0 4.93% 20.29
10 0-2 4.23% 23.64
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.93%
20.29
6.46%
15.49
4.23%
23.64
1.85%
54.14
0.6%
165.32
0.16%
630.91
1
8.38%
11.93
10.98%
9.11
7.19%
13.91
3.14%
31.85
1.03%
97.26
0.27%
371.2
2
7.12%
14.04
9.33%
10.72
6.11%
16.36
2.67%
37.47
0.87%
114.42
0.23%
436.68
3
4.04%
24.78
5.29%
18.91
3.46%
28.88
1.51%
66.12
0.5%
201.9
0.13%
770.42
4
1.72%
58.3
2.25%
44.5
1.47%
67.94
0.64%
155.59
0.21%
475.06
0.06%
1814.88
5
0.58%
171.47
0.76%
130.89
0.5%
199.84
0.22%
457.67
0.07%
1396.65
0.02%
5319.15
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.03% · Fair: 97.14
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.73% 18.27%
1.5 50.68% 49.32%
2.5 24.28% 75.72%
3.5 9.32% 90.68%
4.5 2.96% 97.04%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.93% 20.29
1 14.84% 6.74
2 22.33% 4.48
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.86% 5.93
5+ 18.64% 5.36
Over 2.5 57.9% Under 2.5 42.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.18%
Draw 25.24%
Away Win 28.59%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.9%
Under 2.5 42.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.68%
No 40.32%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.62% 9.42 14.12% 7.08 75.26% 1.33
-1.5 24.74% 4.04 — 75.26% 1.33
-1.0 24.74% 4.04 21.89% 4.57 53.37% 1.87
-0.5 46.63% 2.14 — 53.37% 1.87
0 (PK) 46.63% 2.14 23.76% 4.21 29.61% 3.38
+0.5 70.39% 1.42 — 29.61% 3.38
+1.0 70.39% 1.42 16.87% 5.93 12.74% 7.85
+1.5 87.26% 1.15 — 12.74% 7.85
+2.0 87.26% 1.15 8.39% 11.92 4.35% 22.99

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.