Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.94%
Fair Odds 2.18
Draw
25.31%
Fair Odds 3.95
Away Win
28.75%
Fair Odds 3.48
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.02% Fair Odds 9.07

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.18 —
Draw 3.95 —
Away Win 3.48 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.02% 9.07
2 2-1 9.31% 10.74
3 1-0 8.41% 11.88
4 1-2 7.22% 13.85
5 2-0 7.11% 14.06
6 0-1 6.52% 15.33
7 2-2 6.1% 16.39
8 3-1 5.25% 19.06
9 0-0 4.98% 20.09
10 0-2 4.27% 23.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.98%
20.09
6.52%
15.33
4.27%
23.41
1.87%
53.61
0.61%
163.69
0.16%
624.61
1
8.41%
11.88
11.02%
9.07
7.22%
13.85
3.15%
31.72
1.03%
96.85
0.27%
369.69
2
7.11%
14.06
9.31%
10.74
6.1%
16.39
2.66%
37.54
0.87%
114.63
0.23%
437.45
3
4.01%
24.97
5.25%
19.06
3.44%
29.1
1.5%
66.64
0.49%
203.46
0.13%
776.4
4
1.69%
59.09
2.22%
45.11
1.45%
68.87
0.63%
157.73
0.21%
481.7
0.05%
1838.24
5
0.57%
174.83
0.75%
133.46
0.49%
203.75
0.21%
466.64
0.07%
1424.5
0.02%
5434.78
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.01% · Fair: 99.2
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.55% 18.45%
1.5 50.36% 49.64%
2.5 24.01% 75.99%
3.5 9.17% 90.83%
4.5 2.9% 97.1%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.98% 20.09
1 14.94% 6.70
2 22.40% 4.46
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.80% 5.95
5+ 18.47% 5.41
Over 2.5 57.68% Under 2.5 42.32%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.94%
Draw 25.31%
Away Win 28.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.68%
Under 2.5 42.32%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.54%
No 40.46%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.48% 9.55 14.04% 7.12 75.48% 1.32
-1.5 24.52% 4.08 — 75.48% 1.32
-1.0 24.52% 4.08 21.87% 4.57 53.6% 1.87
-0.5 46.39% 2.16 — 53.6% 1.87
0 (PK) 46.39% 2.16 23.83% 4.2 29.78% 3.36
+0.5 70.22% 1.42 — 29.78% 3.36
+1.0 70.22% 1.42 16.96% 5.9 12.82% 7.8
+1.5 87.18% 1.15 — 12.82% 7.8
+2.0 87.18% 1.15 8.44% 11.85 4.38% 22.83

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.