Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.71%
Fair Odds 2.46
Draw
26.81%
Fair Odds 3.73
Away Win
32.49%
Fair Odds 3.08
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.95% Fair Odds 8.37

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.46 —
Draw 3.73 —
Away Win 3.08 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.95% 8.37
2 1-0 9.12% 10.97
3 2-1 8.78% 11.39
4 0-1 8.13% 12.3
5 1-2 7.83% 12.78
6 2-0 6.7% 14.92
7 0-0 6.2% 16.12
8 2-2 5.75% 17.39
9 0-2 5.32% 18.79
10 3-1 4.3% 23.24
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.2%
16.12
8.13%
12.3
5.32%
18.79
2.32%
43.02
0.76%
131.35
0.2%
501.25
1
9.12%
10.97
11.95%
8.37
7.83%
12.78
3.42%
29.27
1.12%
89.36
0.29%
341.06
2
6.7%
14.92
8.78%
11.39
5.75%
17.39
2.51%
39.82
0.82%
121.58
0.22%
464.04
3
3.28%
30.45
4.3%
23.24
2.82%
35.48
1.23%
81.26
0.4%
248.14
0.11%
946.97
4
1.21%
82.85
1.58%
63.24
1.04%
96.55
0.45%
221.09
0.15%
675.22
0.04%
2577.32
5
0.35%
281.77
0.46%
215.1
0.3%
328.41
0.13%
751.88
0.04%
2298.85
0.01%
8771.93
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.64% · Fair: 157.46
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.01% 22.99%
1.5 43.21% 56.79%
2.5 18.37% 81.63%
3.5 6.19% 93.81%
4.5 1.72% 98.28%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.20% 16.12
1 17.25% 5.80
2 23.97% 4.17
3 22.21% 4.50
4 15.44% 6.48
5+ 14.92% 6.70
Over 2.5 52.58% Under 2.5 47.42%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.71%
Draw 26.81%
Away Win 32.49%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.58%
Under 2.5 47.42%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.23%
No 43.77%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.59% 13.18 12.19% 8.21 80.23% 1.25
-1.5 19.77% 5.06 — 80.23% 1.25
-1.0 19.77% 5.06 21.22% 4.71 59.01% 1.69
-0.5 40.99% 2.44 — 59.01% 1.69
0 (PK) 40.99% 2.44 25.29% 3.95 33.72% 2.97
+0.5 66.28% 1.51 — 33.72% 2.97
+1.0 66.28% 1.51 18.91% 5.29 14.81% 6.75
+1.5 85.19% 1.17 — 14.81% 6.75
+2.0 85.19% 1.17 9.68% 10.33 5.13% 19.48

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.