Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.73%
Fair Odds 2.52
Draw
27.06%
Fair Odds 3.7
Away Win
33.21%
Fair Odds 3.01
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.1% Fair Odds 8.27

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.52 —
Draw 3.7 —
Away Win 3.01 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.1% 8.27
2 1-0 9.23% 10.83
3 2-1 8.65% 11.56
4 0-1 8.46% 11.82
5 1-2 7.92% 12.62
6 2-0 6.6% 15.15
7 0-0 6.46% 15.49
8 2-2 5.66% 17.65
9 0-2 5.54% 18.05
10 3-1 4.12% 24.26
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.46%
15.49
8.46%
11.82
5.54%
18.05
2.42%
41.33
0.79%
126.21
0.21%
481.7
1
9.23%
10.83
12.1%
8.27
7.92%
12.62
3.46%
28.91
1.13%
88.26
0.3%
336.81
2
6.6%
15.15
8.65%
11.56
5.66%
17.65
2.47%
40.43
0.81%
123.44
0.21%
471.03
3
3.15%
31.78
4.12%
24.26
2.7%
37.03
1.18%
84.81
0.39%
258.93
0.1%
988.14
4
1.12%
88.89
1.47%
67.85
0.97%
103.59
0.42%
237.25
0.14%
724.11
0.04%
2762.43
5
0.32%
310.75
0.42%
237.25
0.28%
362.19
0.12%
829.19
0.04%
2531.65
0.01%
9708.74
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.59% · Fair: 170.85
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.46% 15.49
1 17.69% 5.65
2 24.24% 4.13
3 22.14% 4.52
4 15.16% 6.59
5+ 14.31% 6.99
Over 2.5 51.61% Under 2.5 48.39%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.73%
Draw 27.06%
Away Win 33.21%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.61%
Under 2.5 48.39%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.54%
No 44.46%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.11% 14.07 11.82% 8.46 81.07% 1.23
-1.5 18.93% 5.28 — 81.07% 1.23
-1.0 18.93% 5.28 21.05% 4.75 60.03% 1.67
-0.5 39.97% 2.5 — 60.03% 1.67
0 (PK) 39.97% 2.5 25.55% 3.91 34.48% 2.9
+0.5 65.52% 1.53 — 34.48% 2.9
+1.0 65.52% 1.53 19.28% 5.19 15.2% 6.58
+1.5 84.8% 1.18 — 15.2% 6.58
+2.0 84.8% 1.18 9.92% 10.08 5.28% 18.93

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.