Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.48%
Fair Odds 2.53
Draw
27.13%
Fair Odds 3.69
Away Win
33.39%
Fair Odds 2.99
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.13% Fair Odds 8.24

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.53 —
Draw 3.69 —
Away Win 2.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.13% 8.24
2 1-0 9.26% 10.8
3 2-1 8.61% 11.61
4 0-1 8.54% 11.7
5 1-2 7.95% 12.58
6 2-0 6.58% 15.21
7 0-0 6.52% 15.33
8 2-2 5.64% 17.72
9 0-2 5.6% 17.87
10 3-1 4.08% 24.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.52%
15.33
8.54%
11.7
5.6%
17.87
2.44%
40.92
0.8%
124.95
0.21%
476.87
1
9.26%
10.8
12.13%
8.24
7.95%
12.58
3.47%
28.82
1.14%
88.0
0.3%
335.91
2
6.58%
15.21
8.61%
11.61
5.64%
17.72
2.46%
40.59
0.81%
123.93
0.21%
473.04
3
3.11%
32.13
4.08%
24.53
2.67%
37.44
1.17%
85.76
0.38%
261.85
0.1%
999.0
4
1.1%
90.51
1.45%
69.09
0.95%
105.49
0.41%
241.55
0.14%
737.46
0.04%
2816.9
5
0.31%
318.67
0.41%
243.25
0.27%
371.47
0.12%
850.34
0.04%
2597.4
0.01%
9900.99
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.57% · Fair: 174.31
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.52% 15.33
1 17.80% 5.62
2 24.30% 4.11
3 22.12% 4.52
4 15.09% 6.62
5+ 14.16% 7.06
Over 2.5 51.37% Under 2.5 48.63%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.48%
Draw 27.13%
Away Win 33.39%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.37%
Under 2.5 48.63%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.37%
No 44.63%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.99% 14.31 11.73% 8.53 81.28% 1.23
-1.5 18.72% 5.34 — 81.28% 1.23
-1.0 18.72% 5.34 21.0% 4.76 60.28% 1.66
-0.5 39.72% 2.52 — 60.28% 1.66
0 (PK) 39.72% 2.52 25.61% 3.9 34.67% 2.88
+0.5 65.33% 1.53 — 34.67% 2.88
+1.0 65.33% 1.53 19.37% 5.16 15.3% 6.54
+1.5 84.7% 1.18 — 15.3% 6.54
+2.0 84.7% 1.18 9.98% 10.02 5.32% 18.8

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.