Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.95%
Fair Odds 2.86
Draw
27.92%
Fair Odds 3.58
Away Win
37.12%
Fair Odds 2.69
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.55% Fair Odds 7.97

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.86 —
Draw 3.58 —
Away Win 2.69 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.55% 7.97
2 0-1 9.73% 10.28
3 1-0 9.58% 10.44
4 1-2 8.22% 12.16
5 2-1 8.1% 12.35
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 0-2 6.37% 15.69
8 2-0 6.18% 16.18
9 2-2 5.3% 18.86
10 1-3 3.59% 27.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
9.73%
10.28
6.37%
15.69
2.78%
35.93
0.91%
109.72
0.24%
418.76
1
9.58%
10.44
12.55%
7.97
8.22%
12.16
3.59%
27.86
1.18%
85.06
0.31%
324.68
2
6.18%
16.18
8.1%
12.35
5.3%
18.86
2.32%
43.19
0.76%
131.87
0.2%
503.27
3
2.66%
37.63
3.48%
28.73
2.28%
43.86
1.0%
100.43
0.33%
306.65
0.09%
1170.96
4
0.86%
116.69
1.12%
89.07
0.74%
135.98
0.32%
311.43
0.11%
950.57
0.03%
3623.19
5
0.22%
452.28
0.29%
345.3
0.19%
527.15
0.08%
1207.73
0.03%
3690.04
0.01%
14084.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.45% · Fair: 224.27
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.47% 27.53%
1.5 36.96% 63.04%
2.5 14.06% 85.94%
3.5 4.21% 95.79%
4.5 1.03% 98.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.95%
Draw 27.92%
Away Win 37.12%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.92%
No 47.08%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.54% 18.04 10.49% 9.54 83.97% 1.19
-1.5 16.03% 6.24 — 83.97% 1.19
-1.0 16.03% 6.24 20.31% 4.92 63.66% 1.57
-0.5 36.34% 2.75 — 63.66% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.34% 2.75 26.39% 3.79 37.27% 2.68
+0.5 62.73% 1.59 — 37.27% 2.68
+1.0 62.73% 1.59 20.62% 4.85 16.65% 6.01
+1.5 83.35% 1.2 — 16.65% 6.01
+2.0 83.35% 1.2 10.81% 9.25 5.84% 17.13

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.