Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.31%
Fair Odds 3.19
Draw
28.7%
Fair Odds 3.48
Away Win
39.99%
Fair Odds 2.5
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.87% Fair Odds 7.77

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.19 —
Draw 3.48 —
Away Win 2.5 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.87% 7.77
2 0-1 11.19% 8.93
3 1-0 9.83% 10.18
4 0-0 8.54% 11.7
5 1-2 8.43% 11.86
6 2-1 7.4% 13.51
7 0-2 7.33% 13.64
8 2-0 5.65% 17.7
9 2-2 4.85% 20.63
10 1-3 3.68% 27.16
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.54%
11.7
11.19%
8.93
7.33%
13.64
3.2%
31.24
1.05%
95.38
0.27%
364.03
1
9.83%
10.18
12.87%
7.77
8.43%
11.86
3.68%
27.16
1.21%
82.95
0.32%
316.56
2
5.65%
17.7
7.4%
13.51
4.85%
20.63
2.12%
47.24
0.69%
144.26
0.18%
550.66
3
2.17%
46.18
2.84%
35.25
1.86%
53.82
0.81%
123.24
0.27%
376.36
0.07%
1436.78
4
0.62%
160.62
0.82%
122.61
0.53%
187.2
0.23%
428.63
0.08%
1308.9
0.02%
5000.0
5
0.14%
698.32
0.19%
533.05
0.12%
813.67
0.05%
1862.2
0.02%
5681.82
0.0%
21739.13
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.35% · Fair: 283.77
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.54% 11.70
1 21.02% 4.76
2 25.85% 3.87
3 21.20% 4.72
4 13.04% 7.67
5+ 10.35% 9.66
Over 2.5 44.59% Under 2.5 55.41%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.31%
Draw 28.70%
Away Win 39.99%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 44.59%
Under 2.5 55.41%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.9%
No 50.1%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.17% 23.96 9.08% 11.02 86.75% 1.15
-1.5 13.25% 7.55 — 86.75% 1.15
-1.0 13.25% 7.55 19.34% 5.17 67.41% 1.48
-0.5 32.59% 3.07 — 67.41% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.59% 3.07 27.15% 3.68 40.26% 2.48
+0.5 59.74% 1.67 — 40.26% 2.48
+1.0 59.74% 1.67 22.03% 4.54 18.23% 5.48
+1.5 81.77% 1.22 — 18.23% 5.48
+2.0 81.77% 1.22 11.78% 8.49 6.45% 15.5

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.