Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
50.0%
Fair Odds 2.0
Draw
24.09%
Fair Odds 4.15
Away Win
25.91%
Fair Odds 3.86
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.26% Fair Odds 9.75

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.0 —
Draw 4.15 —
Away Win 3.86 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.26% 9.75
2 2-1 9.54% 10.48
3 1-0 7.89% 12.67
4 2-0 7.34% 13.63
5 1-2 6.67% 15.0
6 2-2 6.2% 16.13
7 3-1 5.92% 16.91
8 0-1 5.52% 18.13
9 3-0 4.55% 21.98
10 0-0 4.24% 23.57
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.24%
23.57
5.52%
18.13
3.58%
27.89
1.55%
64.37
0.5%
198.06
0.13%
761.61
1
7.89%
12.67
10.26%
9.75
6.67%
15.0
2.89%
34.61
0.94%
106.48
0.24%
409.5
2
7.34%
13.63
9.54%
10.48
6.2%
16.13
2.69%
37.21
0.87%
114.5
0.23%
440.33
3
4.55%
21.98
5.92%
16.91
3.84%
26.01
1.67%
60.02
0.54%
184.67
0.14%
710.23
4
2.12%
47.26
2.75%
36.36
1.79%
55.93
0.77%
129.08
0.25%
397.14
0.07%
1526.72
5
0.79%
127.05
1.02%
97.73
0.67%
150.35
0.29%
346.98
0.09%
1067.24
0.02%
4098.36
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.42% · Fair: 70.32
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.43% 15.57%
1.5 55.48% 44.52%
2.5 28.55% 71.45%
3.5 11.85% 88.15%
4.5 4.09% 95.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.24% 23.57
1 13.41% 7.46
2 21.18% 4.72
3 22.31% 4.48
4 17.63% 5.67
5+ 21.23% 4.71
Over 2.5 61.17% Under 2.5 38.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 50.00%
Draw 24.09%
Away Win 25.91%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.17%
Under 2.5 38.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.42%
No 38.58%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.05% 7.66 15.36% 6.51 71.59% 1.4
-1.5 28.41% 3.52 — 71.59% 1.4
-1.0 28.41% 3.52 22.15% 4.51 49.43% 2.02
-0.5 50.57% 1.98 — 49.43% 2.02
0 (PK) 50.57% 1.98 22.65% 4.42 26.79% 3.73
+0.5 73.21% 1.37 — 26.79% 3.73
+1.0 73.21% 1.37 15.48% 6.46 11.3% 8.85
+1.5 88.7% 1.13 — 11.3% 8.85
+2.0 88.7% 1.13 7.5% 13.33 3.8% 26.32

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.