Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.85%
Fair Odds 2.13
Draw
25.11%
Fair Odds 3.98
Away Win
28.04%
Fair Odds 3.57
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.91% Fair Odds 9.16

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.13 —
Draw 3.98 —
Away Win 3.57 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.91% 9.16
2 2-1 9.38% 10.66
3 1-0 8.39% 11.91
4 2-0 7.22% 13.85
5 1-2 7.09% 14.1
6 0-1 6.34% 15.76
7 2-2 6.1% 16.39
8 3-1 5.38% 18.59
9 0-0 4.88% 20.49
10 3-0 4.14% 24.16
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.88%
20.49
6.34%
15.76
4.12%
24.25
1.79%
55.96
0.58%
172.18
0.15%
662.25
1
8.39%
11.91
10.91%
9.16
7.09%
14.1
3.07%
32.54
1.0%
100.11
0.26%
385.06
2
7.22%
13.85
9.38%
10.66
6.1%
16.39
2.64%
37.83
0.86%
116.4
0.22%
447.63
3
4.14%
24.16
5.38%
18.59
3.5%
28.59
1.52%
65.98
0.49%
203.05
0.13%
780.64
4
1.78%
56.19
2.31%
43.22
1.5%
66.5
0.65%
153.47
0.21%
472.14
0.06%
1814.88
5
0.61%
163.35
0.8%
125.64
0.52%
193.31
0.22%
446.03
0.07%
1371.74
0.02%
5291.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.07% · Fair: 93.9
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.09% 17.91%
1.5 51.29% 48.71%
2.5 24.81% 75.19%
3.5 9.62% 90.38%
4.5 3.09% 96.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.88% 20.49
1 14.74% 6.79
2 22.25% 4.49
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.91% 5.91
5+ 18.81% 5.32
Over 2.5 58.13% Under 2.5 41.87%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.85%
Draw 25.11%
Away Win 28.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.13%
Under 2.5 41.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.72%
No 40.28%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.97% 9.11 14.35% 6.97 74.68% 1.34
-1.5 25.32% 3.95 — 74.68% 1.34
-1.0 25.32% 3.95 22.01% 4.54 52.67% 1.9
-0.5 47.33% 2.11 — 52.67% 1.9
0 (PK) 47.33% 2.11 23.64% 4.23 29.03% 3.44
+0.5 70.97% 1.41 — 29.03% 3.44
+1.0 70.97% 1.41 16.63% 6.01 12.4% 8.06
+1.5 87.6% 1.14 — 12.4% 8.06
+2.0 87.6% 1.14 8.2% 12.2 4.21% 23.78

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.