Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
Premium FHn2uDc1 betting site ang stake: puwedeng gamitin ng mga bagong user ang promo code FHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Mag-register
INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.22%
Fair Odds
2.21
Draw
25.61%
Fair Odds
3.9
Away Win
29.16%
Fair Odds
3.43
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.23%
Fair Odds 8.91
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 2.21 | — | |
| Draw | 3.9 | — | |
| Away Win | 3.43 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 11.23% | 8.91 |
| 2 | 2-1 | 9.26% | 10.8 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 8.64% | 11.58 |
| 4 | 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.7 |
| 5 | 2-0 | 7.12% | 14.04 |
| 6 | 0-1 | 6.8% | 14.7 |
| 7 | 2-2 | 6.02% | 16.61 |
| 8 | 0-0 | 5.23% | 19.11 |
| 9 | 3-1 | 5.09% | 19.63 |
| 10 | 0-2 | 4.42% | 22.61 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
5.23%
19.11
|
6.8%
14.7
|
4.42%
22.61
|
1.92%
52.18
|
0.62%
160.54
|
0.16%
617.67
|
| 1 |
8.64%
11.58
|
11.23%
8.91
|
7.3%
13.7
|
3.16%
31.62
|
1.03%
97.3
|
0.27%
374.25
|
| 2 |
7.12%
14.04
|
9.26%
10.8
|
6.02%
16.61
|
2.61%
38.33
|
0.85%
117.94
|
0.22%
453.72
|
| 3 |
3.92%
25.52
|
5.09%
19.63
|
3.31%
30.2
|
1.43%
69.69
|
0.47%
214.45
|
0.12%
825.08
|
| 4 |
1.62%
61.87
|
2.1%
47.59
|
1.37%
73.21
|
0.59%
168.95
|
0.19%
519.75
|
0.05%
2000.0
|
| 5 |
0.53%
187.48
|
0.69%
144.22
|
0.45%
221.88
|
0.2%
512.03
|
0.06%
1574.8
|
0.02%
6060.61
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
0.92%
·
Fair:
108.87
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 80.79% | 19.2% |
| 1.5 | 49.11% | 50.89% |
| 2.5 | 22.96% | 77.04% |
| 3.5 | 8.59% | 91.41% |
| 4.5 | 2.65% | 97.35% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 72.75% | 27.25% |
| 1.5 | 37.32% | 62.68% |
| 2.5 | 14.29% | 85.71% |
| 3.5 | 4.31% | 95.69% |
| 4.5 | 1.07% | 98.93% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.23% | 19.11 |
| 1 | 15.44% | 6.48 |
| 2 | 22.77% | 4.39 |
| 3 | 22.39% | 4.47 |
| 4 | 16.52% | 6.05 |
| 5+ | 17.64% | 5.67 |
|
Over 2.5 56.55%
Under 2.5 43.45%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
45.22%
Draw
25.61%
Away Win
29.16%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.55%
Under 2.5
43.45%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
58.78%
No
41.22%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 9.99% 10.01 | 13.8% 7.25 | 76.21% 1.31 |
| -1.5 | 23.78% 4.2 | — | 76.21% 1.31 |
| -1.0 | 23.78% 4.2 | 21.87% 4.57 | 54.35% 1.84 |
| -0.5 | 45.65% 2.19 | — | 54.35% 1.84 |
| 0 (PK) | 45.65% 2.19 | 24.13% 4.14 | 30.22% 3.31 |
| +0.5 | 69.78% 1.43 | — | 30.22% 3.31 |
| +1.0 | 69.78% 1.43 | 17.23% 5.8 | 12.99% 7.7 |
| +1.5 | 87.01% 1.15 | — | 12.99% 7.7 |
| +2.0 | 87.01% 1.15 | 8.57% 11.67 | 4.42% 22.61 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
