Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.68%
Fair Odds 2.52
Draw
27.17%
Fair Odds 3.68
Away Win
33.14%
Fair Odds 3.02
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.16% Fair Odds 8.22

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.52 —
Draw 3.68 —
Away Win 3.02 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.16% 8.22
2 1-0 9.35% 10.69
3 2-1 8.63% 11.58
4 0-1 8.56% 11.68
5 1-2 7.9% 12.65
6 2-0 6.64% 15.06
7 0-0 6.59% 15.18
8 2-2 5.61% 17.82
9 0-2 5.57% 17.96
10 3-1 4.09% 24.47
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.59%
15.18
8.56%
11.68
5.57%
17.96
2.41%
41.46
0.78%
127.57
0.2%
490.68
1
9.35%
10.69
12.16%
8.22
7.9%
12.65
3.43%
29.2
1.11%
89.83
0.29%
345.54
2
6.64%
15.06
8.63%
11.58
5.61%
17.82
2.43%
41.12
0.79%
126.52
0.21%
486.62
3
3.14%
31.81
4.09%
24.47
2.66%
37.64
1.15%
86.87
0.37%
267.31
0.1%
1027.75
4
1.12%
89.61
1.45%
68.93
0.94%
106.04
0.41%
244.74
0.13%
753.01
0.03%
2898.55
5
0.32%
315.56
0.41%
242.72
0.27%
373.41
0.12%
861.33
0.04%
2652.52
0.01%
10204.08
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.57% · Fair: 176.9
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.59% 15.18
1 17.92% 5.58
2 24.37% 4.10
3 22.09% 4.53
4 15.02% 6.66
5+ 14.01% 7.14
Over 2.5 51.13% Under 2.5 48.87%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.68%
Draw 27.17%
Away Win 33.14%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.13%
Under 2.5 48.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.16%
No 44.84%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.04% 14.21 11.8% 8.48 81.17% 1.23
-1.5 18.83% 5.31 — 81.17% 1.23
-1.0 18.83% 5.31 21.09% 4.74 60.07% 1.66
-0.5 39.93% 2.5 — 60.07% 1.66
0 (PK) 39.93% 2.5 25.65% 3.9 34.42% 2.91
+0.5 65.58% 1.52 — 34.42% 2.91
+1.0 65.58% 1.52 19.31% 5.18 15.11% 6.62
+1.5 84.89% 1.18 — 15.11% 6.62
+2.0 84.89% 1.18 9.89% 10.11 5.22% 19.16

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.