Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.94%
Fair Odds 2.57
Draw
27.37%
Fair Odds 3.65
Away Win
33.7%
Fair Odds 2.97
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.27% Fair Odds 8.15

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.57 —
Draw 3.65 —
Away Win 2.97 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.27% 8.15
2 1-0 9.44% 10.6
3 0-1 8.82% 11.33
4 2-1 8.52% 11.73
5 1-2 7.97% 12.54
6 0-0 6.79% 14.73
7 2-0 6.56% 15.25
8 0-2 5.74% 17.43
9 2-2 5.54% 18.05
10 3-1 3.95% 25.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
8.82%
11.33
5.74%
17.43
2.49%
40.23
0.81%
123.79
0.21%
476.19
1
9.44%
10.6
12.27%
8.15
7.97%
12.54
3.45%
28.94
1.12%
89.06
0.29%
342.58
2
6.56%
15.25
8.52%
11.73
5.54%
18.05
2.4%
41.65
0.78%
128.14
0.2%
492.85
3
3.04%
32.91
3.95%
25.32
2.57%
38.95
1.11%
89.88
0.36%
276.55
0.09%
1063.83
4
1.06%
94.71
1.37%
72.85
0.89%
112.08
0.39%
258.67
0.13%
796.18
0.03%
3058.1
5
0.29%
340.72
0.38%
262.05
0.25%
403.23
0.11%
930.23
0.03%
2865.33
0.01%
10989.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.53% · Fair: 188.11
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.94%
Draw 27.37%
Away Win 33.70%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.63%
No 45.37%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.69% 14.95 11.52% 8.68 81.8% 1.22
-1.5 18.2% 5.49 — 81.8% 1.22
-1.0 18.2% 5.49 20.95% 4.77 60.84% 1.64
-0.5 39.16% 2.55 — 60.84% 1.64
0 (PK) 39.16% 2.55 25.84% 3.87 35.0% 2.86
+0.5 65.0% 1.54 — 35.0% 2.86
+1.0 65.0% 1.54 19.59% 5.1 15.41% 6.49
+1.5 84.59% 1.18 — 15.41% 6.49
+2.0 84.59% 1.18 10.07% 9.93 5.33% 18.75

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.