Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.93%
Fair Odds 2.71
Draw
27.86%
Fair Odds 3.59
Away Win
35.21%
Fair Odds 2.84
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.52% Fair Odds 7.99

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.71 —
Draw 3.59 —
Away Win 2.84 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.52% 7.99
2 1-0 9.63% 10.38
3 0-1 9.56% 10.46
4 2-1 8.2% 12.19
5 1-2 8.14% 12.29
6 0-0 7.35% 13.6
7 2-0 6.31% 15.85
8 0-2 6.21% 16.09
9 2-2 5.33% 18.76
10 3-1 3.58% 27.92
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.35%
13.6
9.56%
10.46
6.21%
16.09
2.69%
37.14
0.88%
114.27
0.23%
439.56
1
9.63%
10.38
12.52%
7.99
8.14%
12.29
3.53%
28.35
1.15%
87.23
0.3%
335.46
2
6.31%
15.85
8.2%
12.19
5.33%
18.76
2.31%
43.28
0.75%
133.17
0.2%
512.3
3
2.76%
36.3
3.58%
27.92
2.33%
42.95
1.01%
99.12
0.33%
304.97
0.09%
1173.71
4
0.9%
110.83
1.17%
85.25
0.76%
131.15
0.33%
302.66
0.11%
931.1
0.03%
3584.23
5
0.24%
423.01
0.31%
325.41
0.2%
500.5
0.09%
1154.73
0.03%
3558.72
0.01%
13698.63
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.45% · Fair: 220.17
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.35% 13.60
1 19.19% 5.21
2 25.05% 3.99
3 21.79% 4.59
4 14.22% 7.03
5+ 12.40% 8.07
Over 2.5 48.41% Under 2.5 51.59%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.93%
Draw 27.86%
Away Win 35.21%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.41%
Under 2.5 51.59%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.12%
No 46.88%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.8% 17.25 10.75% 9.31 83.46% 1.2
-1.5 16.54% 6.04 — 83.46% 1.2
-1.0 16.54% 6.04 20.52% 4.87 62.93% 1.59
-0.5 37.07% 2.7 — 62.93% 1.59
0 (PK) 37.07% 2.7 26.33% 3.8 36.6% 2.73
+0.5 63.4% 1.58 — 36.6% 2.73
+1.0 63.4% 1.58 20.37% 4.91 16.23% 6.16
+1.5 83.77% 1.19 — 16.23% 6.16
+2.0 83.77% 1.19 10.58% 9.45 5.65% 17.7

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.