Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.86%
Fair Odds 2.79
Draw
28.28%
Fair Odds 3.54
Away Win
35.86%
Fair Odds 2.79
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.55% Fair Odds 7.97

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.79 —
Draw 3.54 —
Away Win 2.79 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.55% 7.97
2 0-1 9.66% 10.36
3 1-0 9.66% 10.36
4 1-2 8.16% 12.26
5 2-1 8.16% 12.26
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 0-2 6.28% 15.93
8 2-0 6.28% 15.93
9 2-2 5.3% 18.86
10 1-3 3.54% 28.28
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
9.66%
10.36
6.28%
15.93
2.72%
36.77
0.88%
113.13
0.23%
435.16
1
9.66%
10.36
12.55%
7.97
8.16%
12.26
3.54%
28.28
1.15%
87.02
0.3%
334.67
2
6.28%
15.93
8.16%
12.26
5.3%
18.86
2.3%
43.51
0.75%
133.89
0.19%
514.93
3
2.72%
36.77
3.54%
28.28
2.3%
43.51
1.0%
100.42
0.32%
309.02
0.08%
1189.06
4
0.88%
113.13
1.15%
87.02
0.75%
133.89
0.32%
309.02
0.11%
950.57
0.03%
3663.0
5
0.23%
435.16
0.3%
334.67
0.19%
514.93
0.08%
1189.06
0.03%
3663.0
0.01%
14084.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.45% · Fair: 224.42
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.86%
Draw 28.28%
Away Win 35.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.92%
No 47.08%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.69% 17.57 10.65% 9.39 83.66% 1.2
-1.5 16.34% 6.12 — 83.66% 1.2
-1.0 16.34% 6.12 20.47% 4.89 63.2% 1.58
-0.5 36.8% 2.72 — 63.2% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.8% 2.72 26.39% 3.79 36.8% 2.72
+0.5 63.2% 1.58 — 36.8% 2.72
+1.0 63.2% 1.58 20.47% 4.89 16.34% 6.12
+1.5 83.66% 1.2 — 16.34% 6.12
+2.0 83.66% 1.2 10.65% 9.39 5.69% 17.57

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.