Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
26.68%
Fair Odds 3.75
Draw
29.65%
Fair Odds 3.37
Away Win
43.68%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.43% Fair Odds 7.45

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.75 —
Draw 3.37 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.43% 7.45
2 1-1 13.03% 7.68
3 0-0 10.33% 9.68
4 1-0 10.02% 9.98
5 0-2 8.73% 11.45
6 1-2 8.47% 11.81
7 2-1 6.32% 15.83
8 2-0 4.86% 20.57
9 2-2 4.11% 24.35
10 0-3 3.78% 26.43
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.33%
9.68
13.43%
7.45
8.73%
11.45
3.78%
26.43
1.23%
81.33
0.32%
312.79
1
10.02%
9.98
13.03%
7.68
8.47%
11.81
3.67%
27.25
1.19%
83.85
0.31%
322.48
2
4.86%
20.57
6.32%
15.83
4.11%
24.35
1.78%
56.19
0.58%
172.89
0.15%
664.89
3
1.57%
63.63
2.04%
48.95
1.33%
75.31
0.58%
173.79
0.19%
534.76
0.05%
2057.61
4
0.38%
262.4
0.5%
201.86
0.32%
310.56
0.14%
716.85
0.05%
2202.64
0.01%
8474.58
5
0.07%
1353.18
0.1%
1040.58
0.06%
1600.0
0.03%
3690.04
0.01%
11363.64
0.0%
43478.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.27% · Fair: 365.63
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 62.09% 37.91%
1.5 25.32% 74.68%
2.5 7.49% 92.51%
3.5 1.72% 98.28%
4.5 0.32% 99.68%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.33% 9.68
1 23.45% 4.26
2 26.62% 3.76
3 20.14% 4.97
4 11.43% 8.75
5+ 8.03% 12.46
Over 2.5 39.6% Under 2.5 60.4%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 26.68%
Draw 29.65%
Away Win 43.68%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.6%
Under 2.5 60.4%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.17%
No 54.83%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.73% 36.64 7.25% 13.79 90.02% 1.11
-1.5 9.98% 10.02 — 90.02% 1.11
-1.0 9.98% 10.02 17.82% 5.61 72.2% 1.39
-0.5 27.8% 3.6 — 72.2% 1.39
0 (PK) 27.8% 3.6 28.09% 3.56 44.11% 2.27
+0.5 55.89% 1.79 — 44.11% 2.27
+1.0 55.89% 1.79 23.88% 4.19 20.23% 4.94
+1.5 79.77% 1.25 — 20.23% 4.94
+2.0 79.77% 1.25 13.03% 7.68 7.2% 13.88

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.