Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
25.32%
Fair Odds 3.95
Draw
29.85%
Fair Odds 3.35
Away Win
44.83%
Fair Odds 2.23
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 14.12% Fair Odds 7.08

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.95 —
Draw 3.35 —
Away Win 2.23 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 14.12% 7.08
2 1-1 12.99% 7.7
3 0-0 10.86% 9.21
4 1-0 9.99% 10.01
5 0-2 9.18% 10.9
6 1-2 8.44% 11.84
7 2-1 5.98% 16.74
8 2-0 4.6% 21.76
9 0-3 3.98% 25.15
10 2-2 3.88% 25.75
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.86%
9.21
14.12%
7.08
9.18%
10.9
3.98%
25.15
1.29%
77.37
0.34%
297.62
1
9.99%
10.01
12.99%
7.7
8.44%
11.84
3.66%
27.33
1.19%
84.1
0.31%
323.42
2
4.6%
21.76
5.98%
16.74
3.88%
25.75
1.68%
59.42
0.55%
182.82
0.14%
703.23
3
1.41%
70.95
1.83%
54.57
1.19%
83.96
0.52%
193.76
0.17%
596.3
0.04%
2293.58
4
0.32%
308.45
0.42%
237.25
0.27%
365.1
0.12%
842.46
0.04%
2590.67
0.01%
10000.0
5
0.06%
1675.04
0.08%
1290.32
0.05%
1984.13
0.02%
4587.16
0.01%
14084.51
0.0%
55555.56
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.26% · Fair: 382.12
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.15% 39.85%
1.5 23.48% 76.52%
2.5 6.62% 93.38%
3.5 1.45% 98.55%
4.5 0.26% 99.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.86% 9.21
1 24.11% 4.15
2 26.76% 3.74
3 19.80% 5.05
4 10.99% 9.10
5+ 7.47% 13.39
Over 2.5 38.26% Under 2.5 61.74%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 25.32%
Draw 29.85%
Away Win 44.83%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.26%
Under 2.5 61.74%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.76%
No 56.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.38% 42.02 6.73% 14.87 90.89% 1.1
-1.5 9.11% 10.98 — 90.89% 1.1
-1.0 9.11% 10.98 17.28% 5.79 73.61% 1.36
-0.5 26.39% 3.79 — 73.61% 1.36
0 (PK) 26.39% 3.79 28.29% 3.53 45.32% 2.21
+0.5 54.68% 1.83 — 45.32% 2.21
+1.0 54.68% 1.83 24.42% 4.09 20.9% 4.79
+1.5 79.1% 1.26 — 20.9% 4.79
+2.0 79.1% 1.26 13.43% 7.45 7.47% 13.39

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.