Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
24.22%
Fair Odds 4.13
Draw
30.0%
Fair Odds 3.33
Away Win
45.77%
Fair Odds 2.18
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 14.7% Fair Odds 6.8

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.13 —
Draw 3.33 —
Away Win 2.18 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 14.7% 6.8
2 1-1 12.93% 7.73
3 0-0 11.3% 8.85
4 1-0 9.95% 10.05
5 0-2 9.55% 10.47
6 1-2 8.41% 11.9
7 2-1 5.69% 17.57
8 2-0 4.38% 22.85
9 0-3 4.14% 24.16
10 2-2 3.7% 27.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.3%
8.85
14.7%
6.8
9.55%
10.47
4.14%
24.16
1.35%
74.34
0.35%
285.88
1
9.95%
10.05
12.93%
7.73
8.41%
11.9
3.64%
27.45
1.18%
84.47
0.31%
324.89
2
4.38%
22.85
5.69%
17.57
3.7%
27.04
1.6%
62.39
0.52%
191.98
0.14%
738.55
3
1.28%
77.89
1.67%
59.91
1.08%
92.17
0.47%
212.72
0.15%
654.45
0.04%
2518.89
4
0.28%
353.98
0.37%
272.33
0.24%
418.94
0.1%
967.12
0.03%
2976.19
0.01%
11494.25
5
0.05%
2012.07
0.06%
1547.99
0.04%
2380.95
0.02%
5494.51
0.01%
16949.15
0.0%
66666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.25% · Fair: 394.48
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 58.52% 41.48%
1.5 22.02% 77.98%
2.5 5.96% 94.04%
3.5 1.25% 98.75%
4.5 0.21% 99.79%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.75% 27.25%
1.5 37.32% 62.68%
2.5 14.29% 85.71%
3.5 4.31% 95.69%
4.5 1.07% 98.93%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.30% 8.85
1 24.64% 4.06
2 26.86% 3.72
3 19.52% 5.12
4 10.64% 9.40
5+ 7.03% 14.22
Over 2.5 37.19% Under 2.5 62.81%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 24.22%
Draw 30.00%
Away Win 45.77%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 37.19%
Under 2.5 62.81%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 42.57%
No 57.43%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.12% 47.19 6.3% 15.86 91.58% 1.09
-1.5 8.42% 11.87 — 91.58% 1.09
-1.0 8.42% 11.87 16.83% 5.94 74.74% 1.34
-0.5 25.26% 3.96 — 74.74% 1.34
0 (PK) 25.26% 3.96 28.44% 3.52 46.3% 2.16
+0.5 53.7% 1.86 — 46.3% 2.16
+1.0 53.7% 1.86 24.87% 4.02 21.44% 4.66
+1.5 78.56% 1.27 — 21.44% 4.66
+2.0 78.56% 1.27 13.76% 7.27 7.68% 13.02

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.