Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.39%
Fair Odds 2.54
Draw
27.35%
Fair Odds 3.66
Away Win
33.26%
Fair Odds 3.01
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.26% Fair Odds 8.16

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.54 —
Draw 3.66 —
Away Win 3.01 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.26% 8.16
2 1-0 9.5% 10.52
3 0-1 8.76% 11.42
4 2-1 8.58% 11.65
5 1-2 7.91% 12.65
6 0-0 6.79% 14.73
7 2-0 6.65% 15.03
8 0-2 5.65% 17.71
9 2-2 5.54% 18.07
10 3-1 4.0% 24.97
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
8.76%
11.42
5.65%
17.71
2.43%
41.17
0.78%
127.68
0.2%
494.8
1
9.5%
10.52
12.26%
8.16
7.91%
12.65
3.4%
29.41
1.1%
91.2
0.28%
353.48
2
6.65%
15.03
8.58%
11.65
5.54%
18.07
2.38%
42.02
0.77%
130.28
0.2%
505.05
3
3.1%
32.21
4.0%
24.97
2.58%
38.71
1.11%
90.03
0.36%
279.17
0.09%
1082.25
4
1.09%
92.04
1.4%
71.35
0.9%
110.61
0.39%
257.27
0.13%
797.45
0.03%
3095.98
5
0.3%
328.73
0.39%
254.78
0.25%
395.1
0.11%
919.12
0.04%
2849.0
0.01%
10989.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.53% · Fair: 187.09
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.47% 27.53%
1.5 36.96% 63.04%
2.5 14.06% 85.94%
3.5 4.21% 95.79%
4.5 1.03% 98.97%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.39%
Draw 27.35%
Away Win 33.26%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.6%
No 45.4%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.85% 14.6 11.68% 8.56 81.47% 1.23
-1.5 18.53% 5.4 — 81.47% 1.23
-1.0 18.53% 5.4 21.09% 4.74 60.38% 1.66
-0.5 39.62% 2.52 — 60.38% 1.66
0 (PK) 39.62% 2.52 25.83% 3.87 34.55% 2.89
+0.5 65.45% 1.53 — 34.55% 2.89
+1.0 65.45% 1.53 19.44% 5.14 15.11% 6.62
+1.5 84.89% 1.18 — 15.11% 6.62
+2.0 84.89% 1.18 9.92% 10.09 5.2% 19.24

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.