Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.8%
Fair Odds 2.79
Draw
28.41%
Fair Odds 3.52
Away Win
35.8%
Fair Odds 2.79
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.61% Fair Odds 7.93

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.79 —
Draw 3.52 —
Away Win 2.79 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.61% 7.93
2 0-1 9.77% 10.23
3 1-0 9.77% 10.23
4 1-2 8.13% 12.3
5 2-1 8.13% 12.3
6 0-0 7.58% 13.2
7 0-2 6.3% 15.86
8 2-0 6.3% 15.86
9 2-2 5.25% 19.06
10 1-3 3.5% 28.59
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.58%
13.2
9.77%
10.23
6.3%
15.86
2.71%
36.89
0.87%
114.38
0.23%
443.26
1
9.77%
10.23
12.61%
7.93
8.13%
12.3
3.5%
28.59
1.13%
88.66
0.29%
343.64
2
6.3%
15.86
8.13%
12.3
5.25%
19.06
2.26%
44.33
0.73%
137.46
0.19%
532.77
3
2.71%
36.89
3.5%
28.59
2.26%
44.33
0.97%
103.09
0.31%
319.69
0.08%
1239.16
4
0.87%
114.38
1.13%
88.66
0.73%
137.46
0.31%
319.69
0.1%
991.08
0.03%
3846.15
5
0.23%
443.26
0.29%
343.64
0.19%
532.77
0.08%
1239.16
0.03%
3846.15
0.01%
14925.37
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.43% · Fair: 233.26
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.47% 27.53%
1.5 36.96% 63.04%
2.5 14.06% 85.94%
3.5 4.21% 95.79%
4.5 1.03% 98.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 72.47% 27.53%
1.5 36.96% 63.04%
2.5 14.06% 85.94%
3.5 4.21% 95.79%
4.5 1.03% 98.97%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.58% 13.20
1 19.55% 5.12
2 25.22% 3.97
3 21.69% 4.61
4 13.99% 7.15
5+ 11.98% 8.35
Over 2.5 47.65% Under 2.5 52.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.80%
Draw 28.41%
Away Win 35.80%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.65%
Under 2.5 52.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.52%
No 47.48%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.62% 17.78 10.62% 9.42 83.76% 1.19
-1.5 16.24% 6.16 — 83.76% 1.19
-1.0 16.24% 6.16 20.5% 4.88 63.26% 1.58
-0.5 36.74% 2.72 — 63.26% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.74% 2.72 26.51% 3.77 36.74% 2.72
+0.5 63.26% 1.58 — 36.74% 2.72
+1.0 63.26% 1.58 20.5% 4.88 16.24% 6.16
+1.5 83.76% 1.19 — 16.24% 6.16
+2.0 83.76% 1.19 10.62% 9.42 5.62% 17.78

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.